You wrote "new coal is just replacing old coal", in terms if of coal power capacity this is incorrect, as many new coal power plants are build in China.

The utilization of coal power plant fleet is decreasing, the total amount of produced electricity from coal is decreasing.

"Coal usage" in China is different from "Coal usage for electricity production" in China, as the coal use as a feedstock for chemical and liquid fuels will increase in China.

https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/chi...

In 2025 China mined more coal than in 2024, at the same time China produced less electricity from coal in 2025 than in 2024.

"China's coal output rose to a record in 2025, statistics bureau data showed on Monday, as lower domestic prices prompted buyers to cut imports and rebuild stockpiles with cheaper local supply, although the rise was limited by regulator efforts to curb production growth.

Production in 2025 reached 4.83-billion metric tons, up 1.2% from 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics."

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/china-2025-coal-output-...