> until public policy shifted towards papering over population decline with mass migration

Do you have a source showing price increases correlate with migration? (The article seems to show a timing relationship between zoning and prices.)

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drnick1 14 hours ago | parent | next [-]

You can see it in the Japanese data. Japan is more or less closed to immigrants, is experiencing a (for now) slow population decline, and house prices are plummeting.

	▲	orwin 5 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Japanese data shows the opposite, unless you think they weren't a closed country in the 80s. In fact, Japan has been my counterpoint to anybody claiming the housing crisis was caused by immigration.
	▲	JumpCrisscross 14 hours ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		> Japan is more or less closed to immigrants, is experienced a (for now) slow population decline, and house prices are plummeting Japan also famously builds lots of housing. (Agree they are a good example, though, for measuring these effects.)
	▲	14 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		[deleted]

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xienze 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Yeah I do, it's called supply and demand. To have a growing population, every couple needs to have an average of 2.1 children.

Let's say a couple have two children. From t=0 until approximately t=20, all four people require one housing unit.

If that same couple does not have children (guess what's happening in every single western country!) and we instead lean on migration to increase the population for them, at t=0 you have at least 2, maybe 3 housing units required for the same number of people. It's not complicated.

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JumpCrisscross 14 hours ago | parent [-]

This is not how one attributes principal causation among multiple potential causes.

> at t=0 you have at least 2, maybe 3 housing units required for the same number of people

Plenty of families immigrate. And at least in America, immigrant households seem to be denser than native-born ones. You’re assuming immigrant households are smaller than average, which would indeed be surprising unless they’re all quite wealthy.

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xienze 14 hours ago | parent | next [-]

But you agree it certainly must contribute to the problem?

	▲	JumpCrisscross 14 hours ago \| parent [-]
		> you agree it certainly must contribute to the problem? As a multi-decade effect? No, not really. Absent migration I don’t think home prices would be flat in Europe. In some cases, in the short term? Sure. But to answer to what extent is it a distraction versus actual driver of home unaffordability, you need numbers. The article provides compelling evidence for zoning. Given the animus against immigrants in Europe, I’d guess I’m assuming if these data existed they’d already have been found.

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xienze 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> And at least in America, immigrant households seem to be denser than native-born ones.

Answer true or false. One couple+one child requires less housing (in the short-to-medium term) than one couple+one immigrant.

	▲	JumpCrisscross 12 hours ago \| parent [-]
		> One couple+one child requires less housing (in the short-to-medium term) than one couple+one immigrant If two couples and two children take up one unit of housing while providing three units of labour, that’s more space efficient than the one couple + one child if even both parents work. This sort of napkin math doesn’t work for these problems. Particularly when we’re essentially debating elasticity with respect to demand versus supply.