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esseph 7 hours ago

> Because it's not true. CENTCOM can reopen the strait whenever they want

This is not true.

There is too much coastline to guard to protect from coastal drone launches.

There are too many cheap drones and not enough cheap drone counters.

There are still a LOT of working ballistic missile launchers.

There are still a lot of anti-air threats, including medium and short range anti air, and combination infared+electro-optical MANPADS capable of shooting down true 5th gen stealth fighters.

They don't need to hit 999 of their drone or missile launches, they need to hit 1 or 2 to make insurance companies unwilling to take the risk of allowing movement through the straight.

Not to mention the cost of this... military excursion has been extensive in both depletion of competent military officers, depletion of strategic use precision guided weapons, we have lost some very expensive and critical airframes, and politically and around the world, have shown to be somewhat of a very expensive paper tiger in modern large scale operations that is clearly not yet ready for the realities of a modern conflict that isn't being fought by a state in the middle of a civil war.

I could go on and on from both a tactical and strategic angle about why this was awful, but I don't think I'd sway the minds of anyone already set in their perspective.

drnick1 7 hours ago | parent [-]

> There are still a LOT of working ballistic missile launchers.

About half or so have been destroyed if one averages various estimates. The continuation of combat operations was the sensible option: not finishing off a wounded but aggressive animal is always a mistake. Iran will put whatever sanctions relief they get out of a "deal" towards rearming and rebuilding their nuclear facilities, and we will be back to square one in a decade or so, only against a more emboldened enemy.

swat535 an hour ago | parent | next [-]

> About half or so have been destroyed if one averages various estimates

This is a pretty bold claim. What's your source for this?

esseph 31 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/05/07/iran-missiles...

CIA report claims 70% available.

There are massive connected and independent tunnel systems that house, protect, and maintain those systems.

Very hard to get all of them.