This seems wildly naive. This entire field is like 4 years old. We have quite frankly no idea about what things will look like in 4 more years.

The article makes a very specific claim with a clear deadline less than 6 months ago. I do not underestimate the Chinese labs and their capabilities, if they wish they can retool to start overtaking the US labs with a different strategy. My comment shouldn’t be read as a permanent impossibility statement, just an observation on where we are right now. At the moment their strategy seems to be to produce decent quality, highly optimized models; and a pivot will take longer than 6 months to materialize into overtaking the frontier labs (that themselves do not look like they will throw the towel in in the next 6 months).