The cost argument is wrong. Compare Gemini 2.5 Pro to Gemma 4 31B.

Released only 10 months later, a tiny open-weights model outperforms what was once SOTA. Fable and 5.6 Sol will be outperformed by laptop-class models next year.

Except no one will be able to afford those laptops. The hyperscalers will buy up literally all the RAM and high power GPUs. So you'll be stuck with 8GB of unified memory on anything affordable. A laptop of better capability will cost 50% more than today (at least). That won't be your biggest problem because some C-suite goon with stars in their eyes laid you off because of AI.