| ▲ | ddp26 5 hours ago |
| I'm going to pre-register my prediction that GPT-5.6 Sol is significantly behind Claude Fable 5, as evaluated by general consensus once time has passed for people to get familiar with both. |
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| ▲ | CuriouslyC 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Claude will win on "vibes" and it'll be close in coding but considering how incremental Fable is above 5.5 in terms of overall smarts, there's no way 5.6 isn't considerably smarter on the whole. |
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| ▲ | nharada an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Is that the correct comparison? Fable is twice the price |
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| ▲ | hmate9 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| What is this prediction based on? |
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| ▲ | ddp26 34 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Based on my conjecture that Anthropic is ahead on AI research, and that OpenAI doesn't know how to make Fable-class models. | |
| ▲ | gpm 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I suspect the same just based on their versioning scheme fwiw. | | | |
| ▲ | Onavo 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Fable is allegedly a massive model (estimates between 6-10+ trillion, with a few hundred billion active). If 5.6 is just an incremental upgrade over 5.5 (at the same model size) then it won't be able to fully compete with Fable just yet. |
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| ▲ | minimaxir 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I suspect GPT-5.6 Sol will at-the-least be affordable. |
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| ▲ | MostlyStable 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | "Affordable" depends on what you need. When a task is able to be achieved by two different calibers of model, it's obviously more cost effective to use the less capable model, in the same way that you wouldn't hire a math PhD to do simple addition. If what you need is only possible with the more capable model then the "affordability" of the less capable model is sort of irrelevant. If what you need is a novel mathematical proof, it doesn't matter that a high school student is "more affodable". You need the math PhD. As "old" models get more and more capable, it's going to be an increasingly important skill to be able to adequately recognize when a task requires a frontier model and when it doesn't, so that the less capable (and therefore cheaper) model can be used. | |
| ▲ | Y_Y 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Affordable? I'd settle for available. |
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| ▲ | simianwords 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I’m countering this prediction by stating that Fable and Sol will be somewhat similar - this has always been the trend and I see no reason why this should stop now. |
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| ▲ | HarHarVeryFunny 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | OpenAI may have a model in the works that is similar next-gen size and architecture to Fable, but this isn't necessarily it. I'd guess that 5.6 was more of a hasty reaction to Mythos - same base model (same size, same price) as 5.5 but with additional post-training to make it more competitive with Mythos/Fable in some benchmarks. Mythos/Fable is supposedly next generation in size vs Opus, and is rumored to have some architectural innovation in terms of dynamic routing/compute, possibly only fully enabled with Fable which at $10/50 is still twice the price of Sol 5.6's $5/30, but a big reduction from Mythos preview which had been an astronomical $30/150 possibly due to the dynamic routing not yet having been enabled. | |
| ▲ | ddp26 33 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | Is this the trend? There have been various points where one of Anthropic or OpenAI was substantially ahead. Sure, many times they're close, but now doesn't seem like one of them. |
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| ▲ | dimgl 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| why |
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