wishful thinking from MU holders. These LTAs or SCAs are just hedges on the prices going even higher. Once spot prices start dropping, all of the agreements will be broken in a millisecond. The break up fees have already been paid! There's absolutely nothing the buyer has to do, but to simply not buy at the inflated old price and instead buy from someone else at the new, lower price.

Does anyone really think that there is any agreement in the world that will keep companies paying $1000 for a product priced at $20 on the market? The larger the gap the larger the incentiv to break the agreement.

I think you are right but would like to keep in consideration that penalty clauses are real and can be enforced in court. We have no (or perhaps: have some) clue how far the bargaining power is leaning toward the suppliers. Maybe the signatories in the SCA are so cornered, they will sign anything and think ‘boom or bust’.

Can't the government step in and break the cartel like they did in 2010? I guess not because this was entirely driven by market demand and not manufactured supply restriction.

The article says a large part is paid upfront.