> Which would be easily detectable if the cert I'm using on my server didn't match the one that was being served publicly.
I'm not sure why your focus is so heavily on your server. Is that the only thing on the internet you care about?
> Not to mention most sites are going to use pinned certs so any repeat visitors to a site will notice a cert change associated with a MITM.
Most haven't even heard of pinned certs.
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3517745.3561439
"we find that 0.9% to 8% of Android apps and 2.5% to 11% of iOS apps use certificate pinning at run time"