Consider the airplane.

Yes, the steam powered airplane is a dead-end branch in the development of the airplane. Unlike most of the dead-end branches, it actually worked, in a limited technical sense.

Most research and technological development fail, and most of those which succeed in a technical sense end up being worse in a practical sense than other alternatives.

There are a lot of gadgets where "the creators and innovators are told they are wasting their time, suckers, look how many failures came before you" -- and the detractors were right.

The screw-propelled vehicle, after over a century of development, has slightly more success than the steam airplane because there is a niche use as amphirols. But for nearly every case it was designed for, caterpillar tracks, half-tracks, or even tires are better.

No matter how much R&D you put into it, it seems impossible that a roller ship like the Ernest Bazin will have commercial success. Ditto the gimbaled cabin design of the SS Bessemer, meant to stave off seasickness in the passengers.

Various gadgets lie on the border where they seem tantalizingly commercially realizable, like kites on container ships. That's where kooks and hucksters thrive.

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mmooss 18 hours ago | parent [-]

> That doesn't change the face that most research and technological development fail

I agree. So what? If you have a better way, you will no doubt be very, very successful and your name will be in history books.

But so far nobody has a better way. It follows that we cannot predict which R&D will fail to be developed or fail to be useful - otherwise we wouldn't have so many failures. And therefore the claim upthread, that they know now the future outcome of this research, is false.

	▲	eesmith 11 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Your comment "Or most research and technological development requires years or generations ..." has an implicit but important missing qualifier. "Or most SUCCCESSFUL research and technological development requires years or generations of experimentation and failure before success." Most research and technological development fail, which is why creators and innovators may be told they are wasting their time by looking at well-traversed, almost certain dead ends in hopes of finding a new, long-overlooked path, rather than putting their efforts into R&D more likely to succeed. We can absolutely predict that some R&D will fail to be useful - I mentioned a few. Here's another - a radium-powered reading lamp.