The US didn't go from #1 in global auto manufacturing to nearing extinction on accident. The companies shifted production abroad because they didn't want to pay for US labor. We can't just pray for "development" to spark a chain reaction that gets us back on track - we were the most developed and consciously chose to squander that advantage.

Onshoring can be done, but it will have a real cost someone will have to bear. The industry would prefer consumers just pay twice as much for cars, meanwhile consumers are at a breaking point like they've never felt. In the meantime there's a stalemate and nobody can move, as the decline continues.

Comparing with China, I’d be curious about whether their companies face the same return-on-capital forces that US (and to a lesser extent western) companies do. So when we outsource to them, it’s to a vendor who is not needing to promised 10%+ returns. As I understand it, this is because the central government exerts pressure on banks to make loans at low rates, so that capital can be raised more easily for targeted industries.

I agree that onshoring is likely impossible without some sort of contextual reimagining of US industry.

> The companies shifted production abroad because they didn't want to pay for US labor

Realistically it’s the consumers who didn’t want to pay for it

By accident. (Good)

On purpose. (Good)

An accident. (Good)

On accident. (Bad)

> The companies shifted production abroad because they didn't want to pay for US labor.

That's not true. Reality is far more nuanced than that. Sadly, it is the equivalent of a bunch of Dodo birds falling off a cliff. And this applies to every industry, not just automobiles.

The simplified version goes something like this:

Three companies manufacture forks and knives in the US. They share the market equally. Each has 1/3 market share.

One of them decides they can be clever, manufacture in China, reduce the price of their products and get more than 1/3 share.

Their plan succeeds. Their market share goes up to 1/2 and the other two companies down to 1/4 each

Try as they might to compete, they cannot, the cost basis in the US is higher.

One of them decides "We can be just as clever" and they start manufacturing in China.

Now two of the companies, on account of their lower prices, have 2/5 of the market each. The third company is down to 1/5 share.

The last company has no choice at all, they have to manufacture in China or shut their doors.

With all three companies manufacturing in China, we are now back to each having 1/3 of the market again. Except that, due to the price war, they are now selling the same product they were selling before the transition for half the price. And, of course, their margins are no better, maybe even worse.

And now, the grand finale: The industrial development all three companies effectively funded in China has taught one or more factories how to make these products. Now the Chinese companies enter the market directly, compete with their customers and drop the prices even more. All three companies go out of business. One of the companies is acquired in bankruptcy by one of the Chinese factories who sell the same product for less under the same brand.

Ironically, the reason (one of them) consumers are at the breaking point is because this chain reaction --which required consumers to prefer cheaper goods from abroad-- managed to destroy untold number of industries everywhere. This destroyed jobs by the millions. And here we are.

In some ways this is no different from the race for higher minimum wage. The huge sucking sound you are hearing are the millions of jobs that are being lost because of it.