*why would they warn if it they didn’t believe it.

2 words: regulatory capture.

Ban Chinese models because they’re “bad”. (can’t have head to head competition).

Bad open weight model (can’t let people escape the subscription model).

People have been warning about the dangers of advanced AI since long before open weight competition was a consideration.

	▲	_aavaa_ 2 days ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Sure, but they’ve either been the kool-aid-drinking p-doomers, or academic discussions about giving them access to weapons. Now we have real companies whose valuation depends on people using their services.
	▲	TremendousJudge a day ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		yes, and all their abstract, philosophical thought is now being used to justify high valuations by these companies. if what they are making is the new nuclear bomb, well then they must be very valuable indeed.

▲

ben_w 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> 2 words: regulatory capture.

> Ban Chinese models because they’re “bad”. (can’t have head to head competition).

The current scale of current + planned data centres only makes sense if the US exports inference worldwide. 30% of your current total electrical generation capacity, and equivalent to 76% of your total electrical demand in 2022. At least, assuming the "33 GW installed, 300 GW more planned" claim I've heard was not itself an AI hallucination.

And at least OpenAI and Anthropic were persuing the same argumemts continuously to their initial founding, before such capture was plausible.

I don't only mean that GPT-2 was, famously, when OpenAI surprised the world with (paraphrased) "we think this is a good point to start practicing not releasing the weights, before models get too dangerous" or as a surprising number of people interpret it even when I link to OpenAI's own post "we think this is … too dangerous".

I mean even before that.

I wouldn't disagree if you say Musk is full of BS, but he did donate to OpenAI when it was created as a nonprofit, and his wealth was 2 orders of magnitude smaller than today. Back then he was talking about risks, "summoning the demon", now he's the one demanding saying "robot army" to justify a bigger compensation package from Tesla.