> While we're in the token-equivalent of ZIRP, tokens don't cost what they cost, so there's sort of arbitrage to be had

Do you have a source for this? I believe “personal subscription” plans on OpenAI and Anthropic are likely ran at a net loss or close to it, but all indications elsewhere are that API pricing for these companies and likely Google as well are profitable per API call [1][2]. I would definitely believe that the Chinese players are operating at a loss though if that is what you mean.

[1] https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-growth-and-b...

[2] https://martinalderson.com/posts/are-openai-and-anthropic-re...