While I see the point, I think I more often encounter the opposite. Duplication, but not exactly duplication. Then the "sunk cost fallacy" is not an issue but there is huge maintenance cost and no-one feels like refactoring it. I'd rather refactor bad abstraction than 10x duplication.

but those are exactly the cases where the distinction matters. when you have a situation where you can't duplicate the code exactly, then you really have to look carefully if this is actually the right place for a shared abstraction. i tend to wait and see if i can refactor one or the other to get them to be exact duplicates and only then see if i can fit in a common abstraction. and yes, finding that i later need to make the same change in both places is a sign that a common abstraction is probably the right call.