Even if it fails, California has taken a multi billion dollar tax hit from all of the wealth flight as a result of this. Not to mention that those people may take jobs with them, straight to Florida or Texas or other friendlier states.

These taxes are an abject disaster everywhere they're tried. France tried it and it was extremely bad for them.

The cash raised from the tax is dwarfed by the wealth flight, every time.

Napkin math for just the people who have left already over 5 years show $50 billion in lost tax revenue. Probably far more in indirect losses (jobs, consumption, etc).

You need to remember that the proponents of this kind of thing WANT rich assholes to leave. They consider that an environmental social improvement.

If you won't do anything about the wealth, the top 1%, or top 0.1% will own more and more, until they own everything. Literally. There is no other outcome possible

Florida has never had an income tax. With few exceptions, most of its wealthy are retirees or heirs, who don't have much income anyway.

Texas does not have an income tax. Despite its century of oil wealth, it has fewer billionaires than CA or NY.

These states don't have income taxes because they're unpleasant places to live at the best of times and nobody would choose to live their if they had to pay income taxes.

I actually think billionaire flight is a good thing. Billionaires do not contribute to their community. Sure some tax accountant and some security people will lose their jobs, but this not matter for regular folk.

If nothing else, billionaires flight is a positive thing.

I am hoping all the billionaires leave my Washington state as a result of the millionaire tax - it may become a normal state like Oregon.

You need to install capital controls first.

'Trickle down economics will start working any day now, do you really want to miss out on our billionaire trickle?'

Leaving California means stepping away from the highest concentration of billion-dollar outcome creation in the U.S. Over the past ~40 years, California has produced on the order of ~120–200 billionaire-producing startups, versus ~15–35 in Texas and ~10–25 in Florida, depending on how you define origin.

Using standard venture-style risk and reward thinking, the data favors staying. The distribution of extreme upside outcomes remains heavily concentrated in California. Now if your a done/finished investor/creator or you have to be cost conscious it makes sense to leave the dream state and move to the retirement home states that cater to the has been class versus the creator class. No shame in having to be cost conscious or being ready to give up and fade into the retirement home of states lifestyle.

If you think a few billionaires moving to other states would take the Silicon Valley with them and it would be easy then let's see it play out.