This was never the question. The question was, will the export controls slow them down in the short/medium term to the point where it will give US companies an advantage?

I mean, I remember listening to the Biden people back in 2022 talking how they were going to cripple China's semis and therefore AI industry and keep them 5+ years behind the curve as Team America accelerates ahead. That was the pitch.

You've now got Huawei Ascend 950, GLM-5.2 at Opus 4.8 levels, China dominating OSS models, and Z.ai saying they'll have a Fable-level model by EOY. I would say the export controls have utterly, utterly failed.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-biden-administra...

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