The goal is obviously to make US taxpayers pay for it, but give room for the admin to lie and say we aren't. Similar to how Mexico was going to pay for the useless border wall.

Of course, point 1 (which includes immediate stoppage of the fighting in Lebanon) isn't happening -- which sort of renders the rest of the thing moot anyway.

It sounds like a huge amount of money and a clear sign of defeat. The US (or maybe Europe, who knows?) is paying Iran some form of tribute.

But, there's another way to see this: if you pay someone money, you end up with a lot of say in what they can or can't do. That money does not come with any guarantee; the party offering the money will keep the money flowing based on their own perception of good behavior of the party receiving the money. The post-Trump administrations will find themselves in the possession of a tremendous amount of leverage with Iran.

They already refused to join his war of choice, can't see them giving one cent to this.

Wikipedia already lists it as an Iranian victory.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war

I think any successful negotiation will looks exactly like this. What do you guys want? A full-on world war 3?

Yankee here. Happy for the people of Iran, assuming that money mostly benefits them and not the underground missile cities that should have been cleared out and turned into geothermal market cities and resource storage for their people.

The same way they felt about getting dragged into a war by Israel.

Prescient

From the live updates of the war on the NYT 11 minutes ago and around 15 mins after you wrote this:

“””Mideast Live Updates: Iranian Forces Say They Closed Strait of Hormuz Iran’s military command blamed the U.S., saying it failed to prevent Israel from violating the cease-fire in Lebanon. Mediators in Pakistan said “technical talks” between the U.S. and Iran to end the war would be held on Sunday.”””

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06/20/world/iran-trump-isr...

Already happened

Trump's mishandling of the Israel-Iran war will be a great case study in international politics. But blaming Trump for Netanyahu's derangement is ill-thought. Even a Democrat President wouldn't have been able to reign him. In fact, once Biden / Harris allowed him to massacre the Palestinians in Gaza (remember, Biden publicly supported Netanyahu by announcing to the world that there is "no genocide in Gaza" - https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/20/biden-gaza-not-geno... ), the US had already lost the plot to Netanyahu's mis-adventurism. I think at one point he was making his army fight in 7-8 fronts! Under him, Israel's army is now considering occupying territories in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon when their military resources and personnel are already overstretched (Israel has what 9-10 million population?). If you read Netanyahu's history, you will discover that he has been progressively getting radicalised in his political views - a brilliant man ( Professor recalls Netanyahu's intense studies in three fields - https://news.mit.edu/1996/netanyahu-0605 ), he started out as a moderate-right, who increasingly turned to conservatism when his political ideas didn't receive the reception he desired. And now finally, the pressures of the criminal charges and security failures of the now infamous Hamas attack (which he and his government is responsible for) has now fully radicalised him into a full-blown religious fundamentalist fascist as the ongoing genocide in Gaza, West Bank and Lebanon testifies to it ('Angel of destruction': What made Benjamin Netanyahu? - https://www.middleeasteye.net/big-story/israel-who-benjamin-... ).

I don't believe any US President can "manage" him now ... he is self-destructing and taking Israel down with him.