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amluto 4 hours ago

These numbers seem insufficiently detailed to really evaluate anything. They’re had $13bn in gross revenue in 2025, and they cost of that revenue was $7.5bn. Both are growing fast (we assume) and the ratio ought to stay roughly constant.

But: how are they calculating the cost of revenue? Do they have rapidly depreciating assets that are also needed to produce that revenue? (Starlink has this issue.) Will their cost per arithmetic operation for inference rise or fall? (Anthropic is paying xAI an absolutely insane amount to lease GPUs. They must be betting that they will not need to repeat that.) Is a large portion of the cost allocated to R&D actually being used to support their revenue?

I certainly believe that the cost of inference can be plenty low for them to make a profit, but a more granular breakdown would make it easier to evaluate.

3eb7988a1663 an hour ago | parent [-]

I am also curious what fraction of that revenue is government contracts. If they got say $N billion in government contracts, that is not going to have meaningful growth in the future.