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fearmerchant 5 hours ago

It's more like once you figure out how to make a really good lamp then producing lots of lamps will be profitable. But the lamps are currently suboptimal so we'll be in the red until that time.

strken 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It's more like you have a business making engines, each generation of engine has eventually turned out to be profitable over its lifespan, but each generation has an exponentially increasing R&D cost and your customers will switch from the old engines to a competitor if they don't like the newest generation.

You're stuck racing against your competitors with the distinct possibility that your R&D costs will outgrow the market demand, and you can't stop because otherwise your customers will stop investing in your dead end tech and switch.

jcgrillo 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

And there are just tons of free engines sitting around that are basically almost as good as the newest ones...

tenuousemphasis 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Except this is the first generation of engine manufacturers and nobody knows if it will actually be profitable yet.

strken 2 hours ago | parent [-]

We do know that Anthropic claims earlier models eventually turned a profit, and OpenAI is presumably the same.

What is in doubt is whether past performance is an indicator of future results. How long will the ever-increasing R&D expenditure keep paying off?

ndiddy 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

OpenAI won't be able to cut R&D spend and collect rent on their existing models as long as the Chinese models keep up the pace of being ~6 months behind them for a fraction of the price.

rwmj 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

And if you wait 12 months, someone will be giving away lamps for free that work just as well.

darth_avocado 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

And then someone will come up with lamp pro max and you’ll be out of business. You realize why R&D exists in tech companies even though it’s a cost center right?