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adornKey 15 hours ago

It is best to say that it is a religious topic. Everybody has strong opinions about it, but nobody has ever bothered to look into any details of atmosphere physics.

Everybody thinks he knows everything about the subject, but nobody ever checked anything. If people go into the details of some absorption spectrum they risk to get cancelled.

It's religion - and a strong one. With dogmas, taboos and holy authorities.

smallmancontrov 14 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If the bible cited even 1/1000th as many studies and experiments as the IPCC Reports, it would be a very different book.

> If people go into the details of some absorption spectrum they risk to get cancelled.

On the flickering smidgen of a chance that you are making this complaint in good faith, the reason why nobody feels obliged to walk you through the science is because for decades there has been a raging denial-of-service battle where the anti-climate-activist side spams questions under the pretense of "I'm just a curious individual, just asking questions" (JAQing off) when in fact they are exploiting the asymmetry between asking and answering a question. It takes 1x effort to ask and 100x effort to compile a good answer and you can only tell that the question was being asked in bad faith at the end when, after having the question thoroughly and convincingly answered, the JAQ-off completely fails to update their priors and immediately rotates to another misunderstanding that validates their politics. And then another, and another, indefinitely, because the JAQ-off never wanted to learn, they always just wanted to promote their politics.

If the science community opens its arms to this, it gets stabbed in the heart. Ask me how I know. Our response is twofold:

1. Don't assume good faith until someone invests effort to demonstrate it

2. Point to the IPCC reports, which are one of the most monumental assemblies of knowledge, observation, and experimentation in human history.

These days, "the simplified IPCC reports are still too hard for me" isn't even an excuse because LLMs exist and are good at explaining the scientific basis for climate issues. Whichever detail of whichever absorption spectrum you have in mind has almost certainly been studied by a hundred authors across a dozen labs who have also studied and answered 5 more questions about the absorption spectrum that you didn't think to ask. But the information is out there: go get it!

Once you have invested effort in digging into the IPCC report, finding a study, reading it, building a question -- then you can go to a particular researcher and ask a particular question. You will get an answer, because you pass gate #1. But right now you are very far from passing gate #1 because you have put in no work to formulate a good question.

Straw 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Interestingly, the IPCC reports themselves (not the summaries for policymakers) are quite optimistic. IIRC something like, if we do nothing to abate emissions, climate damages in 2100 will cause damage equivalent to ~3% of GDP per year. (With GDP being many times higher than now per capita). Hardly a catastrophic prediction!

smallmancontrov 10 hours ago | parent [-]

I know, right? They bend over backwards to not be "alarmist," even perhaps a bit more than they should. But of course this wins them zero credit from their political opponents, which is an important lesson about politics: seeking middle ground with someone bent on destroying you is a fool's errand.

adornKey 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The IPCC has been in defensive mode for a few years now. They made claims that absolutely made no sense and haven't answered to obvious criticism for years now. Only now they are very slow in backpedalling. Why should anyone still trust them? You can read IPCC reports all day long - if they still contain obvious flaws - it's not going to impress... If you check related websites you find a lot of propaganda - and very little science. They stopped caring about using arguments years ago. I looked for science there and only found low quality rubbish.

The only thing going for them is the argument from authority. But once you know people in academia this doesn't work any more. I personally know a climate scientists (he published 40 papers). He showed a lot of signs of mental issues - most likely he is completely nuts - From experience I've seen that competent guys don't go to work in academia - it's mostly a cargo cult society for guys from the 2nd and 3rd intellectual league. Just look at them - I've seen more religious nuts and real flat-earthers there than anywhere else. I know a lot of guys in academia and even the most sane one is still leading the UFO-club...

smallmancontrov 12 hours ago | parent | next [-]

On one hand we have the IPCC with concrete claims, detailed explanations, piles of survey papers expanding the details, and piles of novel and confirming work behind each survey.

On the other we have adornKey, with vague accusations and smack talk that feel like they came from a LLM, still stuck at gate #1. Sad.

t0mpr1c3 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> The IPCC has been in defensive mode for a few years now. They made claims that absolutely made no sense and haven't answered to obvious criticism for years now. Only now they are very slow in backpedalling. Why should anyone still trust them? You can read IPCC reports all day long - if they still contain obvious flaws - it's not going to impress... If you check related websites you find a lot of propaganda - and very little science. They stopped caring about using arguments years ago. I looked for science there and only found low quality rubbish.

> The only thing going for them is the argument from authority. But once you know people in academia this doesn't work any more. I personally know a climate scientists (he published 40 papers). He showed a lot of signs of mental issues - most likely he is completely nuts - From experience I've seen that competent guys don't go to work in academia - it's mostly a cargo cult society for guys from the 2nd and 3rd intellectual league. Just look at them - I've seen more religious nuts and real flat-earthers there than anywhere else. I know a lot of guys in academia and even the most sane one is still leading the UFO-club...

Thank goodness honest citizens like "AdornKey" are around to pinpoint the precise reasons why the international community of climate scientists are crazy, stupid, closed-minded, and ignorant. I am certainly glad that "AdornKey" made this laser-focused contribution to my understanding.

Ancapistani 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

While I wouldn't argue that academia is "crazy, stupid, closed-minded, and ignorant", I would absolutely argue that they are ideologically homogenous. The whole community is rife with political signaling and affinity groups.

teddyh 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Please refrain from personal attacks.

wredcoll 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Does "he started it" count?

Windchaser 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> It is best to say that it is a religious topic. Everybody has strong opinions about it, but nobody has ever bothered to look into any details of atmosphere physics. Everybody thinks he knows everything about the subject, but nobody ever checked anything. If people go into the details of some absorption spectrum they risk to get cancelled

Wat

I am just a climate science hobbyist: my graduate work was in another science field, but I follow the field a bit and read some of the hot papers. But even in my day job we still use a fair bit of atmospheric physics.

I have to run into atmospheric physics a fair bit and it's not my area of training. I know that the friends and colleagues who are in research deal with it much, much, much more intimately.

This comment is wildly, and weirdly, off the mark. Atmospheric physics is no more a religion than steel metallurgy or rainforest ecology is. It's grounded in hard experimental data and observations.

11 hours ago | parent | next [-]
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adornKey 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Great! But the number of people that actually bother to check some numbers are very small. Even guys that scored well in related tests in university usually don't have the slightest clue how any relevant spectrum looks like, and how the numbers add up.

Windchaser 6 hours ago | parent [-]

This is really vague.

Are you saying that some of the commonly-accepted science is significantly incorrect? If so, which parts?

tovej 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It's only a religious topic to climate change denialists.

fuzzfactor 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Not only that but with somewhat less fervor those having fairly strong faith in superstition really add up after a while too.

Combine both and it can be the most bizarre trend in non-cognizance that many have ever seen.

Very often displayed by those who wouldn't recognize the difference between a CO2 spectrum and the brain scan of an accurately diagnosed mentally deficient patient.

Some conditions you just can't fix.

Regardless it makes you wonder what kind of medication some people are on, and if they took too much even if it was to no avail.

t0bia_s 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

By your rethoric, do you consider yourself as climate alarmist?

Maybe try to be honest to yourslef first and then you'll understand, why it is really just about opinions that vary. No need to labeling opposition.

tovej 15 hours ago | parent [-]

So you're labelling me a climate alarmist before I have made a single statements about the climate crisis?

I have also not used any rhetoric that wasn't first introduced by the parent, so you also have no evidence of my rhetoric.

Do you see how that is a dogmatic (some might call it religious) response?

To the point: the evidence is overwhelming, and there is nothing alarmist about reacting rationally to it. Anyone denying human-caused climate change is also doing so in the face of this overwhelming evidence, so the label is rather accurate. I would happily label climate deniers with any negatively charged label you can think of: simpletons, propagandists, accelerationists, fundamentalists, reactionaries, fascists, useful idiots. Depends a little on what their role is which label sits best, but they all apply.

t0bia_s 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Climate change denialist or alarmist is labeling. You belive in something and other don't.

Your arrogance to opposite opinion does not bring anything new to dialogue.

15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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phs318u 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> nobody has ever bothered to look into any details of atmosphere physics.

I’m sorry but this is demonstrably wrong as the simplest search of reputable scientific journals would show.

pastel8739 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You’re clearly referring to something specific, what is it?

mothballed 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

One example is that whenever patents expire on some refrigerants or related process somehow magically at that same exact moment Dupont or other chemical IP behemoth magically find a new one safe for the ozone, the science magically all aligns at that moment, and congress/EPA finds the time to change the law before one iota of generic industry can squeeze out.

I think the generic idea of the science and global warming is real but there is a whole industry around gaming the conclusions and gamifying what concern pops up when to magically align with whatever the guy with the most influence and self-dealing is hawking at that time.

rainsford 14 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The problem you're describing is non-scientific interests putting their thumb on the scale of scientific questions. The solution to that problem is more science, not more politicized control of science.

Elsewhere in this comment section you're defending politicians as customers of scientists demanding politically convenient science. But that's exactly what produces the non-scientific conclusions you're talking about in this post. What you really should want is for science to be held to a gold standard of fidelity to the facts, and for politicians who push them in other directions should be voted out of office.

mothballed 12 hours ago | parent [-]

>The problem you're describing is non-scientific interests putting their thumb on the scale of scientific questions. The solution to that problem is more science, not more politicized control of science.

You won't likely "more science" your way into thumbs off the scale, that is going to have to be achieved from largely non-scientific means.

>Elsewhere in this comment section you're defending politicians as customers of scientists demanding politically convenient science.

This is a cleverly packed lie, one attempted to paint me as a hypocrite, that you not only not quote but also chose to not address directly. The reason why is obvious -- flood the zone with indirect pointers to supposed lies to wear down the counterparty. But just this once I'll entertain it, though I know this deceit doesn't stop once engaged.

> defending politicians as customers of scientists

I am stating the politicians are the customers of the government-employed scientists. What I am "defending" is not living in a fantasy. Of course you can wax philosophical about "we the people" or whatever but at the end of the day the summation of congress+executive has constructive possession of the purse and executive management of scientific employ.

> ... demanding politically convenient science.

and I used the verbatim word 'retarded' alluding to what I thought of it ... a very strong defense of that particular customer, after which I suggest they might get a new one.

> ut that's exactly what produces the non-scientific conclusions you're talking about in this post.

There's a genius amount of terse deception to unpack here. The slight of hand is you use 'customers of scientist demanding politically convenient science' but then claim 'exactly what produces' these conclusions are ... the non-scientific output of work of scientists rather than the output of politicians who are customers. If they are producing non-science they are not acting in capacity of scientists yet somehow they escape your damnation here despite being the very people producing it by reading of your statement. Your sentence is one tightly packed logical contradiction that simultaneously guards scientists as providers of facts while simultaneously claiming the scientists themselves are producing non-scientific conclusions by chaining that as the output of the work. If they are scientists of fidelity acting in capacity of such then practically by definition they aren't to be blamed for non-scientific conclusions and are not the "producers" of such regardless of whom their customer is.

> What you really should want is for science to be held to a gold standard of fidelity to the facts

The scientist who depends on a salary to survive who wants fidelity of facts should look for customers demanding that. Expecting to produce fidelity from someone demanding infidelity means you end up broke or you become corrupted. The demand from government is infidelity. In fact what I'm "defending" is looking elsewhere away from politicians at this time because your aspiration of "should be voted" is at odds with the current reality of "they were not."

Supermancho 8 hours ago | parent [-]

> I am stating the politicians are the customers of the government-employed scientists

You can restate the ideology over and over. It doesn't change reality. There are many parties involved. I have agency as well. It's all very pedestrian to be reductive, but it's not compelling.

mothballed 8 hours ago | parent [-]

>You can state the ideology over and over.

This is rich considering it's the first time I stated it in this particular sub thread as the person I responded to was both too chickenshit to quote what I said or respond directly where I said it because it would betray that their portrayal was bad faith and full of shit.

The "reality" check, in fact, is coming for the scientists who are still suspending belief that they too were not better than the plebs who could be shit-canned in a millisecond by the whims of the "parties" involved (but muh reductive portroyal! Also science is in chaos!) and have to go on a "pedestrian" and "reductive" mission to use their "agency" to find a new "party."

Time to face the music, "scientists."

Supermancho 8 hours ago | parent [-]

More noise. Lovely. Do you think how often you say something has any bearing on a base assumption from which all your conclusions are drawn, is not an ideology? Oh boy.

mothballed 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Of course not, go "make noise" about science being in "chaos", say it a lot. The "scientists" seem to have no problem saying the shock of their plight over and over with the hope it will change the "base assumptions" of the "ideologies" influencing their employment. But as you say, it doesn't change reality.

amanaplanacanal 8 hours ago | parent [-]

If it changes the minds of the voters, then different people will be in charge of the funding. Is that not how it works?

mothballed 8 hours ago | parent [-]

This is saying that "saying something over and over" will change reality. This was ridiculed by the person I was responding to so I decided to play along with it, but I'm open to that being true if we're revising that outlook.

adornKey 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Ozone is an interesting topic. CFCs seem to be very potent climate gases. But I haven't checked any calculations about them, yet. I'd love to see a good analysis of the absorption-spectrum. Adding something new to the atmosphere has a lot of warming potential - but the question always is how fast it reaches a level of saturation. For ozone and CFCs years of media coverage haven't brought any insight. Having 3 different updated versions of Dupont-products in the atmosphere could be good or bad - most likely people haven't bothered to check, yet... But they're all full of furious knowledge. People "know" that banning CFCs "cured" the ozone hole - but they don't ask why it shrunk too early, and why the situation hasn't changed at all for decades now...

I think most likely the banning was good - but the reasons don't really make sense.

smallmancontrov 13 hours ago | parent [-]

> most likely people haven't bothered to check

Searching "cfc concentration in atmosphere" on scholar.google.com returns 60000 papers. Cruising the first few pages, most of them easily qualify as "bothering to check." Your estimation of the scientific community is five orders of magnitude off.

adornKey 12 hours ago | parent [-]

How about you get 1$ from me for every paper you found there that answers my question - and I get 1$ from you for every paper that is not relevant to my question?

counters 29 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Deal. Put $10,000 in escrow and point me to your lawyer to work out the details.

smallmancontrov 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

scholar.google.com is right there. Put in the work or talk to the hand.

quietsegfault 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Your original claim was that people haven’t bothered to check. When someone pointed out there are tens of thousands of papers on the subject, you changed the question to find papers that answer my specific question.

Those are not the same claim. You went from arguing that the research doesn’t exist to arguing that you haven’t personally seen research that satisfies you.

adornKey 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

This will go too far, but if you want to understand things, maybe HITRAN Database is interesting for you. There've been detailed calculations what is going on with absorption. How the absorption spectrums of relevant gases look like is a start. The next question is to check how much potential a gas has (how much energy is available in that spectrum?). HITRAN is an extensive database for the relevant lines. The results are interesting and a bit surprising...

But all this has been explained and cancelled again and again... It's no good topic in any religious environment where nobody has bothered to get basic knowledge about the physics before.

lakhim 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

make the argument explicitly. Here, I'll do it for you: doubling co2 levels should only lead to a 1c increase in temperature (~3w/m2 extra forcing).

That ignores all the other things that happen besides co2 forcing alone.

adornKey 12 hours ago | parent [-]

Your numbers most likely aren't exact. But most interesting is what you mean with "other things" and how much this is expressed in numbers. And have you looked up any numbers about methane?

smallmancontrov 10 hours ago | parent [-]

You have no numbers at all, and your complaint is that lakhim's aren't exact?

convolvatron 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

the experimental framework for finding out absorption spectra goes back like 100 years and is basically high school level science. not only that, we have quantum chemistry models that predict empirical results from atomic configurations that are 20+ years old and match that empirical data to a very high level of accurany. there is plenty of ambiguity to attack in climate modeling, but you chose the most settled and fundamental thing to poke at.

lakhim 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

dude make an argument or dont, this kind of half assed "I know something but the man won't let me talk about it" is annoying and useless.

N_Lens 13 hours ago | parent [-]

He’s probably a bot or paid to post misinformation to muddy the waters. The topic is highly financially charged despite overwhelming evidence on one side.