Everytime I think that prediction markets bets can't get worse, they do, all in weird ways. I never expected someone betting over when RFC 10,000 will be published but somehow its fits just about right for prediction markets.

just wow, people seem to be having too much money it seems for them to bet over when RFC's are gonna get released.

This isn't even one of the worst offenders on prediction market or even comparable to it but I am just amazed (in a negative manner, surprised? its just strange) by the depth on what people actually bet on these markets.

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networked 6 hours ago | parent [-]

People aren't betting real money on this. Manifold uses "mana" points similar to HN karma, which is why you get more for-fun silly bets. I don't see anything inherently wrong with it. Disclosure: my mana net worth is 75k; I haven't been active on Manifold.

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Imustaskforhelp 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Ah okay. I didn't know that.

Interesting thing actually. Seems similar to the trend in South Korea recently where you can online shop to get the thrill of shopping but you aren't actually paying with money.

But I am unsure of the overlap between manifold and polymarket/kalshi. I imagine that some might win in manifold and try to bet on polymarket to win "real" money which ends up being a bit gambling-esque.

But good for manifold for atleast not playing with real money but rather points like this. I would argue that Manifold might be better than polygon/kalshi in terms of net positive outcome of its existence for the world perhaps.

	▲	networked 5 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Interesting trend. I have found a short article about it: https://www.odditycentral.com/news/south-koreas-fake-online-.... It seems nothing long-form has been written about it in English yet. There is an overlap between Manifold and Polymarket/Kalshi. At the very least, Polymarket is more liquid, which creates opportunities for arbitrage and incentives for Manifold users to follow Polymarket. There is something at stake on Manifold itself if you choose to pursue it. There have been ways to convert mana to charitable donations (to your preferred charity), tickets to Manifest (the Manifold conference), and also merch and now prize drawings. Mana is like HN karma in that being at the top gives you status and bragging rights and suggests technical competence.