FWIW I think it might be both.

Ultimately if you skip over the opportunity to play with these models on your own machine you are losing out on a lot of really interesting educational opportunities — it helps make a lot of stuff feel more concrete in a way that only tinkering can.

But then I think once I had an idea of something that I was building against Gemma 4 or Qwen 3.6 I would be looking at openrouter etc., to stabilise it for the next tier of experimentation (and to get back a kind of multi-device access without tailscale/lm link etc.).

Are they good enough to replace what people seem to want to do with Claude? Maybe not. But it's an unparalleled learning opportunity.