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defrost 5 hours ago

Also good at bad analogies:

  When electricity arrived, nobody woke up and redesigned the plant. Why would they?
The reason shearing sheds and cotton gins remained driven by by overhead shafts turning from a single large motor, be that a hydraulic mill, a steam engine or an electric motor was that many tiny hand held electric motors with the required torque for the task were some time coming.

Once they became an economically feasible alternative, movement away from shaft drives happened at pace.

smtx 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Author here. You're right, and it's a better version of my point. The shaft persisted because small high-torque motors weren't economically feasible yet, not because anyone was blind. That's the structure I'd argue we're in now: the constraint isn't ignorance, it's that the enabling piece isn't cheap enough yet.

My claim is that for knowledge work that piece (capable models on hardware you own) is crossing into feasibility right now, which is when, by your own account, reorganization actually happens fast. "Why would they" was too glib; "they couldn't yet, and then they could" is the real shape. Fixing that line.