| ▲ | Nevermark 2 hours ago | |
> an incentive to make their technology seem transformative and powerful I have no frame of reference to process this. Humans species perhaps 300,000 years, we are essentially the same. Transistor, 79 years, explosive growth in numbers and power. Integrated circuit, 68 years, explosive growth in numbers and power. "Attention is all you need", 9 years. ChatGPT, 4 years, explosive growth in instances and power. Humans species, not getting smarter. [0,1,2,3] There is a syndrome where many people seem unable to perceive or reason about rates of change in technology. We are going to spend the vast majority of our future lives without the intelligence crown. In terms of verbally expressible knowledge, models are passing many people completely, and passing all of our individually respectively weak reasoning areas. Other modalities are progressing very quickly. There will be short periods where progress happens quickly, but the impact feels slow. There will be radical changes that feel slow too, because if something anticipated or important isn't instant, we tend to perceive it as slow. But it won't be slow. And it won't be long. We are smart in a kind of pick the-best-of-us at the-best-of-times way. We are rarely consistently or broadly smart individually. We are not in the same galaxy as "ready". What would that look like? [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor | ||