> Doesn't seem like a domesday scenario

Ceteris paribus, those figures imply a $45bn loss this year, $90bn loss next year and $110bn loss in 2028 before breakeven in 2029.

That's $250bn of losses to be financed from 2026 onwards. (They raised ~$120bn, $25bn up front and the rest based on milestones. So Another ~$125bn uncovered.) That only works if OpenAI stays a fundraising darling. So not a doomsday sceanario. But perilous, and dependent on short-term trends extending into long-term curves.

You're adding absolute dollars rather than using percentages - that usually isn't how that works.