> If you start a war and you don’t win, then you lose

This is reductive. One can absolutely stalemate. Regardless of whether you start a war, if it ends with you worse off and the other party either where they were at the start or arguably better off, you lost.

If all that happened was the Strait was reopened, I'd call it a stalemate. The fact that Tehran got reparations equal to a third of a trillion dollars–over $800 from every American and $1,100 from each and every voter–makes it an Irania victory and American defeat.