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JumpCrisscross 11 hours ago

> A bad peace will be better than this war

We're no longer in a position to unilaterally disengage. If the IRGC decides its political establishment is wrong and starts potting random shit again, we'll be dragged back in.

dragontamer 10 hours ago | parent [-]

I know Iran likely has a fractured government, but more assassinations vs various Iranian leadership won't exactly solve that issue. (Indeed, it's incredibly stupid that we assassinated so many leaders to the point that the peace deal is so shaky)

This is as unified as Iran is going to get in the near future. So we gotta work with what we have.

JumpCrisscross 9 hours ago | parent [-]

> we gotta work with what we have

I'm not saying we don't negotiate. I'm saying we shouldn't expect the results of any negotiations to hold. Various parties will keep trying to torpedo the peace, including by attacking American interests, because they either think they can get more or profited from the war.

dragontamer 9 hours ago | parent [-]

I mean, the stock market is idiotic if that's what you mean and I agree.

But I will perpetually trust and hope in the peace process.

Not much to do but offer my support for the end of this war. No matter how unlikely it is.

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No one here knows how bad the peace deal is. It's not even published yet (and it's not even a real*(edit) peace deal but instead only a Memorandum of Understanding). I guess I do reserve the right to grow disgusted at whatever was negotiated as the details come out.

JumpCrisscross 9 hours ago | parent [-]

> the stock market is idiotic if that's what you mean and I agree

I'm referring to elements in the IRGC that consolidate power and wealth through the war. The ones agitatig for autarky.

> I do reserve the right to grow disgusted at whatever was negotiated as the details come out

I'm super curious about the timeline for payouts. If they fucked that up, it's literally in Tehran's interest to start shooting rockets into the Strait right before the midterms to try and get another goody bag.

And let's be clear, we now have a straight throughline to two directly antagonist, racist governed-by autocratic genocidalist nuclear states in the Middle East with weapons ranged for each others' territories, interspersed with a sea of un-coordinated air-defence systems which even in good times have trouble distinguishing friend from foe, thereby making the best-case ending for the next 50 years being Jordan and Lebanon littered with fallout from intercepted nukes.