Can't speak for anyone else but there was a step change in frontier models last November. Opus 4.5 and GPT 5.2 I think.

When I colloquially say Opus level I really mean Opus 4.5 or later

Right. Local models haven't quite hit that level yet. The biggest open models, which you need tens of thousands of dollars of hardware to run at reasonable speed, have pretty much hit that level of capability, but most models you can reasonably run at home aren't quite there yet. But given the gap, if local models keep improving, you'd expect to maybe see that level by this November.