Why does there need to be an "upside" legible to our profession?

windexh8er 20 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Because the alternative is admitting the main upside so far is: a few VCs and early employees get yacht money while everyone else gets a gate-kept chatbot and constant fear mongering. But hey, I guess we all have our own opinion of "upside".

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akerl_ 20 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Isn’t this the same thing every other industry and market has been experiencing with technology, automation, etc. for decades, while tech workers basked in their joy at being safe from being replaced because we were the ones powering the replacing?

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kpcyrd 19 hours ago | parent | next [-]

This. Capitalism only became problematic the minute it stopped having a cozy spot for software developers~

And even then people prefer blaming the prediction machine instead of recognizing their situation as the logical conclusion of capitalism.

	▲	throwway120385 13 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I always thought raw, unchecked Capitalism sucked. I've thought that my whole life. "Welcome to the asylum" and all that.

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UqWBcuFx6NV4r 19 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Yep. 100%. Developers are getting a taste of their own medicine for about the first time ever, and it’s seldom acknowledged. This is why you won’t find me begging for sympathy in any of these conversations. Developers have had it so good for so long. The moment SV startup dweebs are exposed to actual market forces for 0.01 seconds and it’s like the sky is falling. Pathetic.

	▲	akerl_ 19 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Don't get me wrong, I think it would be nice if the skillset I happened to hone turned out to be the one field that stays lucrative for my entire career. I just don't think the market owes me or people in my field a job, and if we get displaced and have to learn new roles, we'll be in good company with most other humans alive in our generation.
	▲	scorpioxy 11 hours ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		This isn't about the first time ever though. I've been hearing the phrase "get rid of your developers" for a long time now. Let's see. SaaS is all you need, boot camp devs, no code, low code and buying-off-the-shelf-components and I'm sure I'm missing a few. This time, the automation is coming to most industries and will be felt across the economy(ies).
	▲	stanmancan 14 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		The ones most likely to be “exposed to market forces” right now are the junior developers who never got to “have it good for so long”.

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tptacek 20 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I mean, that very well could be the case. It often is the case with any kind of automation. There's a plausible claim that things will turn out fine, and another plausible claim that it could be a disaster for the profession. But whether or not it's a disaster for professional developers is separable from whether (a) it's a disaster for, like, society, and (b) whether or not it fundamentally is an important new fact about the world --- like, whether we're OK with it or not, it does appear likely that a huge swathe of professional software development work is fully automatable.

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carlosjobim 19 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It doesn't seem like it, but there are other people in the world besides programmers and venture capitalists. They will benefit from AI, many already are. Some professionals are not.

A computer used to be a person, it was a job title. They worked in giant offices where they calculated important things on paper.

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applfanboysbgon 19 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

They didn't say a word about "our profession". Where is the upside for humanity? Everyone is bearing the cost of hardware going up 4x. Anyone purchasing a computer feels the downside of components costing 4x. Anyone who likes interesting things being hosted on the internet feels the downside of small-scale projects shutting down when they can no longer be sustainably hosted at 4x cost. Anyone who likes interesting consumer hardware feels the downside when 4x cost means there is no longer room for small or new businesses to innovate and find new products to bring to market because nobody can afford them, and when game consoles and other electronics spike in price. Anyone who browses the internet feels the downside of it being >50% bot content. Anyone who uses software feels the downside of "AI" being shoved into everything while performance, security, and reliability of their programs deteriorate to new lows. Anyone who participates in society feels the downside of police, military, lawyers, healthcare professionals, and all manner of other foundations of society outsourcing their life-altering decisions to a hallucination machine.

What have we gained for all this? Not "software developers", I mean "average humans". We gained a bot that can be mildly amusing and that can sometimes provide educational value although that value is diminished because 10% of the time the results are poisoned but you don't know which 10% of the time it's hallucinating which brings the value of the rest of its answers down.

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tptacek 19 hours ago | parent [-]

I read "fewer jobs" and "massive increase in hardware cost" as issues principally pertaining to programmers. I can't tell if any of the rest of this argument applies if we stipulate that's what I'm talking about.

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applfanboysbgon 19 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Why would massive increase in hardware cost pertain only to programmers? You do realise that programmers make up perhaps 1% of the people who buy hardware, which number in the billions?

Decrease in jobs doesn't necessarily relate only to software dev either. Translation and customer service are fields that are likely to suffer greatly, for example, and end consumers also suffer when those jobs are outsourced because LLMs do a shit job at both but for cheaper than a human does it. Their comment didn't read as pertaining to "our profession" at all to me.

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tptacek 19 hours ago | parent [-]

The massive increase in hardware costs we're talking about here are Hetzner servers. Normal people don't acquire any kind of server space. Apple is now shipping the Macbook Neo, one of their better laptops ever, at mid-hundreds of dollars.

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applfanboysbgon 19 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Normal people don't acquire server space, but they do interact with things hosted on servers. We are going to see a proliferation of small services shutting down and other services raising their prices as a natural consequence of hardware going up 4x. Of course, it's not just Hetzner hardware going up, but virtually all consumer computation.

Apple has always placed a >5x markup on their hardware that well-to-do consumers would pay for brand name and status culture reasons. That they released a 'budget' option (for their standards) does not counteract the fact that the entire bottom of the consumer hardware market is now rising to Apple prices.

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tptacek 19 hours ago | parent [-]

What's the thing that relies on servers that got 4x more expensive for consumers? I think this is something you want to be true more than it's something that is true.

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applfanboysbgon 19 hours ago | parent [-]

I didn't make that exact claim, and I also spoke of future tense "will be". Obviously, the budget prices just raised. You can see some anecdotes here:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48545965

...which I will throw in my anecdote to, that I will have to shut down some hobby servers I was hosting because I can't afford to host them at these prices. Not right away because the current price is grandfathered in, but probably sometime soon, and this has the immediate chilling effect that I won't be starting any new hobby servers.

For paid services, hosting is not 100% of their costs nor are they priced at-cost, so there is no reason to believe they will go up exactly 4x to match hardware costs, but it's inevitable that if the hosting line item has gone up 4x, various services will find the need to raise their prices.

---

rate-limited, so:

> Hobby servers are things programmers run. The premise of this thread is that things can be bad for programmers without being "bad".

I am not hosting services for programmers. There are thousands of non-programmers who interact with the servers I host. You seem extremely fixated on this weird idea that you can relate everything back to programmers suffering and that everything is fine if this only sucks for programmers.

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tptacek 19 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Hobby servers are things programmers run. The premise of this thread is that things can be bad for programmers without being "bad".

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jrflowers 18 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

tptacek is arguing that he, specifically, does not care about the Hetzner price increase. Anything outside of that (eg the cost spike in consumer computing https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260310-12959.h...) isn’t relevant. There’s no point in making an argument about the material reality of things here because he’s objectively right that he, personally, does not care about it.

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tptacek 17 hours ago | parent [-]

I'm thinking more about, like, my next door neighbors, who also don't care that my interlocutor had to turn off one of their hobby servers. That's OK, though, because they also think a Macbook Neo would cost $119 without the Apple tax, so I think we're at an impasse.

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sieve 12 hours ago | parent | next [-]

There are people running sites hosting old religious texts and hymns and a hundred other things that have nothing to do with programmers. A 4x jump in the bill for someone on limited income not gaining anything from it is not trivial. It results in the disappearance of a site that will not come back.

	▲	tptacek 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Hosting costs for "sites hosting old religious texts and hymns" have not gone up by 4x. Computationally light hosting has gotten cheaper, not more expensive.

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jrflowers 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I am trying to parse this post because it sort of reads like “My neighbors are dumb and we care about the same things” but I can’t figure out why someone would write that

How did we get from you saying that you didn’t understand the post that you responded to to neighbor chat in so few posts

	▲	tptacek 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		My argument is straightforward, but like any argument on a message board things get tangled after back-and-forths and rebuttals. It's that costs for things programmers care about are obviously increasing, and some of those costs are specifically due to AI and not to general supply chain fuckiness. But things can be bad for programmers but better (or not meaningfully worse) for everyone else.

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jrflowers 19 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If we’re going to define what’s good for the general public based on a single arbitrary product from a company of our choosing, the Steam Deck just got a $300 price increase for the same hardware.

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Capricorn2481 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It literally has 8gb of RAM. It's a great laptop, but its value is specifically in how much it can do with cheaper parts using their infrastructure.

I don't know what rock you're living under, but literally everyone is walking into stores looking for computers, or computer parts, and leaving with nothing, because all GPUs, RAM, and SSDs are triple in price. I don't know where you got the idea that this only affects servers.

What do you think precipitated Hetzner price increases? It was ram tripling for everybody

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lovich 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

its anecdotal, but the non software engineers in my social circles wont even consider trying games with rumors of breaking hardware like Jumpspace with GPU bricking[1] because they feel they can no longer afford to replace the hardware in their gaming rigs. I have had several people independently complain to me that they are locked out of the hobby whenever their GPU or ram dies.

[1]https://steamcommunity.com/app/1757300/discussions/0/5917831...