It's the last bump before I liquidate all my stocks. I predict that the crash will come at the end or the beginning of the next president which is likely democrat.

Not that it's democrat's fault but democrat is more disciplined

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LPisGood 16 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I have some thoughts on that. It’s possible that the current administration’s lack of oversight has artificially propped up the stock market. If the next president decides to return to a more traditional rules based structure, the market will probably react very poorly. US debt is also getting more expensive and interest is ballooning.

Making the country less desirable to the most skilled immigrants and eroding the capabilities of the strongest research universities will also mean there is probably hell to pay in the medium term.

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ergocoder 16 hours ago | parent [-]

The swing of the market based on the president's crazy tweets is just insane. This cannot go on for much longer. I will be parking my money at a safer place

	▲	zahlman an hour ago \| parent [-]
		> The swing of the market based on the president's crazy tweets is just insane. A quick glance at charts shows that VIX is not at all out of line with historical patterns, and asking ChatGPT to crunch some numbers confirms that. The "liberation day" spike was not nearly as bad as in 2008 or for COVID, and in fact not much more than events in 2010 and 2011 that people don't even have names for.

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zahlman 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Time in the market beats timing the market, bears have predicted (large number) out of the last (smaller number) recessions, etc. None of this is novel. "Predicting" a stock crash due to political reasons is effectively just a fancy restatement of anti-those-politics views; and it isn't substantive, especially when the prediction comes with a years-long window.

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cosmicgadget 14 hours ago | parent [-]

You need to caveat this with "... if you want to be lazy and ignorant of your port." Otherwise there is so, so much evidence that it is flat wrong.

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zahlman an hour ago | parent | next [-]

> Otherwise there is so, so much evidence that it is flat wrong.

Pardon; are you asserting there is mountains of evidence that the bears have not, in fact, claimed impending recession far more often than actual recession occurred? Or that market timers are generally successful (are you not familiar with e.g. https://longbets.org/362/ )?

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ergocoder 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Yeah, meanwhile all the wealthy people actively manage their port with an insane amount of efforts. They would compensate hedge fund manager with insane amount of money.

Then, they turn around and tell average people to forget about the investment. Just park your money in the index fund over the long run. I mean, if you are either stupid or don't have time, then yeah please only do index fund.

	▲	zahlman an hour ago \| parent \| next [-]
		It took me quite a while to figure out that the two of you are using "port" as short for "portfolio". Never heard that before. "The wealthy people" got wealthy in a whole bunch of different ways that are not investment; and having gained wealth, they invest it for many different reasons aside from maximizing log-mean expectation (or probability of sustaining a given level of cash flow, or other objective metrics that only consider the investment itself). Hiring a well-compensated "hedge" fund manager (many of these funds are not at all about hedging) is barely any more "effort" than buying and holding SPY, as the work is being entirely delegated. Many strategies are dependent on that level of wealth (or designed to address problems that only apply to that level of wealth) for tax-related reasons. There is plenty of evidence that most lay people who try to time the market lose out on average, and I see no reason to expect you to be an exception. Active trading loses out on average to indexes by mathematical necessity, as both grow on average proportional to the total value of equities, but active traders (and holders of actively managed funds) are exposed to higher fees. The only winners there are the market makers.
	▲	cosmicgadget 13 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		"But my 401k advisor showed me a chart!"

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newaccountman2 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That's like 2.5 years from now--you don't think crash will happen before then?

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ergocoder 16 hours ago | parent [-]

I think it may happen before then. That's why I'm thinking of liquidating it soon-ish. Trump is doing too much crazy things. He cannot prop up the market for that long.

I plan to put most of the money in US t-bill (4 week) to earn 3% for now.

	▲	cosmicgadget 13 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Check out spring of 2020. Rate cuts and QE if he can get control of the Fed.

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mhb 16 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

And what are you going to do with that money?

	▲	ergocoder 16 hours ago \| parent [-]
		US t-bill (4w) until the market crashes. For 401K, I'll just move it to money market/bond. We don't really need to maximize the profits all the time. Not losing the money is good too.