> That implies the former FTX stake would be worth about $75B before further dilution.

> FTX’s customer shortfall was roughly $8B to $9B.

I think these hindsight analyses are interesting because they're leading a lot of into retroactively playing devil's advocate for SBF.

It is interesting to imagine a world where FTX made a one-time oopsie, broke some laws to cover it up, but then put all the money back and recovered like nothing ever happened.

You have to remember that this was literally their plan, though. They tried that. It didn't work.

If it had worked, they would have had to spend years hiding the facts from auditors and hoping that none of their employees ever leaked the info or tried to claim a whistleblower reward for what they knew.

If they had gotten past all of that, their continued existence would hinge on them not getting into the same position again. I have my doubts about that. Usually when people in these positions get away with their crimes they are only emboldened to continue taking the same or more risks in the future.

Maybe what they hoped is what actually happens. The SEC gives wealthy people and companies a slap on the wrist typically. A fine that means nothing. Government agencies like the IRC or SEC mostly go after smaller players who are mostly less malicious but don’t have the connections or wealth to fight off the bureaucracy. But in FTX’s case they got in trouble before they reached that level of power.