I wouldnt be surprised if the big labs become semi-nationalized commodities a la electricity / railroads due to national security, with the best models gatekept from outsiders trying to distill it

And I'm generally bearish on Chinese models catching up at this point, American labs are pulling away especially with mythos-tier models, and early signs of RSI (not to mention the benchmaxxing going on from the chinese labs). If mythos allows users to execute agentic cybersecurity exploits at scale then the right thing to do is to guard access until you find a way to guardrail against it, which may be impossible

>cybersecurity exploits at scale

Cybersecurity is actually a solved problem, but most people don't know it.

During the Vietnam war, there were two sources of information that had to be processed to plan air missions, and they were of different classification levels. There was no computer system at the time that could be trusted to operate with mixed levels of security. Research began in 1973, and there were a number of security models found that could actually do the job.

The EROS system, and its successors, were based on the principle of least privilege, and capabilities. In such a system, you can have security and usability together, if the OS is properly constructed.

It was the timing of the wave of cheap personal computers that drew focus away from security, and into functionality. The default security model of almost everything we use is ambient access, where a process can access everything the user is allowed to touch, by default. This is outright silly in an age of persistent internet connectivity.

I am not sure we have anything comparable with AI. Utility like electricity was hard to regulate from people because at some point anyone can build their own generator at the backyard.

AI if anything is opposite. Extremely high bar to build, and every next increment requires at best linear scale of resources.

If we imagine that AI became semi-nationalized and heavy regulated, then we enter the world where governments select companies and people to have access to capabilities which vast outlast capabilities available on the market. Company A is in “access list” and can deploy ruthless AI agent capable of advanced combined cyber operations; company B is denied. Who will win?

If we add here polarization and already historic high inequality, it reads like a straight recipe from Cyberpunk sci-fi.