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scriptsmith 6 hours ago

And now is this going to be a one-off, or routine with every new generation of models?

neuronexmachina 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Is there any reason they couldn't also apply export-control to older models, just to screw with Anthropic?

karmasimida 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Every. There is no reason the government will let go the power it has obtained, that is never how it works

nathanasmith 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

There won't be any new generation of models more powerful than Fable since the argument against Fable would apply even more. Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 is the best we'll ever see from this point forward. Soon low cost Chinese models will catch up to those thereby destroying Anthropic and OpenAI's pricing power which will mark the beginning of the end for them too.

tw1984 3 hours ago | parent [-]

you need to be 8yo to believe Chinese are going to give you SOTA models at low prices. being open is not compatible with the Chinese culture.

Chinese here, no racism card here please.

0x3f 32 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> being open is not compatible with the Chinese culture.

Hardly, it's one of the least IP-law burdened places in the world. Ready access to media, yes, but also scientific papers, books, etc. No real restrictions on duping products, so execution often becomes the winning ticket. That's all pretty open and good for consumers.

You could argue they won't allow SOTA models to be exported but it doesn't really have anything to do with Chinese culture not being compatible with openness.

lbreakjai an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They would have a golden opportunity to inflict damage to a geopolitical adversary. The US economy is being propped up by AI, I'm not sure they'd miss the chance to blow that bubble if they could.

gmueckl 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It depends on the end goal. Free good enough models are a way to drastically devalue Anthropic and OpenAI. A well timed release of a capable model that can run on obtainable hardware, so that a small/medium company can afford self hosting, has the potential to destroy one or both of these companies. This would narrow down the frontier model oligopoly and give the Chinese government a lot more power beyond its borders.

It really depends on whether the Chinese government wants to make good money or "win" the current AI bubbke.