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stingraycharles 6 hours ago

So isn’t the only logical conclusion that we have reached the max of model capabilities that the US allows to be made available to the public? Why invest in smarter models with this precedent?

And potentially more importantly: if a model like Mythos, which at best is an incremental improvement over Opus, is getting this treatment, how are all the AI investments that are based on the expectation of ASI / AGI / significantly better models going to be recouped?

ncallaway 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It seems more likely that the logical conclusion is the executive branch is mad at Anthropic, and lashing out at them with any convenient tool that they have.

I suspect if OpenAI or Grok was operating at the same level they wouldn’t find themselves on the sharp end of the government stick

rw2 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Anthropic's own marketing and urban legends spawned by them is to blame too. They built up too much BS around mythos and project glasswing

kccqzy 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Marketing is never ever to blame. Remember a few months ago when the U.S. government labelled them a supply chain risk? What eventually happened was that a federal judge issued a temporary injunction while calling it a "classic First Amendment retaliation." The Constitution protects such marketing; the government is not allowed to be maddened by such marketing.

blueaquilae 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

But it was Anthropic initiative to limit the deployment to restricted groups, it's great to see the gov following their analysis. AIs are too powerful and dangerous they should be limited to a very restrained individuals isn't?

ncallaway 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Yes, Dario Amodei definitely opened the door to this kind of attack by trying to market Mythos as being too dangerous to release.

svnt 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Which they anticipated, which is why they were flagging and dropping back to opus on anything they could even potentially be called on.

sh34r 3 hours ago | parent [-]

They should have just called it Opus 5.1 and released it like normal. All this fanfare, under this corrupt regime, after they declared you a supply chain risk… Wario has horrendously bad judgment.

uneekname an hour ago | parent [-]

That would have been such a different HN thread. "Dang I feel a nice bump in performance here, way to go" and that would be that.

thewebguyd 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> AIs are too powerful and dangerous they should be limited to a very restrained individuals isn't?

IF LLMs are THAT dangerous and powerful (and that's a huge if that I do not currently subscribe to), then no, no one should have access at all, there is no group of people in positions of power (government or corporate power) that I would consider "restrained"

beepbooptheory 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If its so "powerful" that it's this kind of issue, why does it even matter who "has it" or not? Like what does this mean to you? The super powerful, super intelligent AI is going to have arbitrary loyalty with one person or another?

Computer0 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I would be okay with that if it actually meant that. Very restrained individuals in reality would see nothing and very unrestrained governments would have access.

nonethewiser 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[flagged]

ncallaway 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Are you asking me to provide evidence that in this specific instance this is an instance of weaponization of process, or are you asking me for evidence that this particular executive has lost the benefit of the doubt when it comes to weaponization claims, or are you asking for evidence that the executive is hostile to Anthropic?

LPisGood 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This government has proved time and time again it does not deserve the presumption of regularity and that it is more than capable of acting in arbitrary and capricious manner for petty reasons.

handoflixue 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Anthropic was designated a "supply chain risk" despite this (a) being an absolutely absurd classification and (b) being completely at odds with the continued usage of any Anthropic products within the US government: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/anthropic-officially-arbitrari...

From that, we can very reasonably conclude that the US government has a specific vendetta against Anthropic in particular, and that this vendetta has nothing to do with the technical merits of their product.

To my knowledge, they have yet to drop that classification, despite heavy court opposition.

Additionally: technical benchmarks suggest that the most recent ChatGPT models are within maybe 10% of Fable 5's capabilities, so this being a pure "capabilities" concern seems unlikely.

Uncertainty: It's possible that we have just suddenly reached the end of public AI releases, though - if ChatGPT 5.6 also gets blocked, that would be very good evidence of a general, non-weaponized policy. Given the recent Executive Order requiring pre-release audits of frontier models, this is somewhat more likely than it was a couple weeks ago.

I still think things add up to "weaponization is the most likely theory" and that one is being disingenuous to dismiss it as a reasonable possibility. But it's certainly NOT the only reasonable possibility.

jwitthuhn 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Fortunately for us all Dario literally asked for this sort of restriction on model usage so we can be certain Anthropic are not victims here.

typeofhuman 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> it seems more likely that the logical conclusion is the executive branch is mad at Anthropic, and lashing out at them

Have people forgot about evidence?

ncallaway 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Are you asking me to provide evidence that in this specific instance this is an instance of weaponization of process, or are you asking me for evidence that this particular executive has lost the benefit of the doubt when it comes to weaponization claims, or are you asking for evidence that the executive is hostile to Anthropic?

ncallaway 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48511745

johnwheeler 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

They said "seems"

madrox 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I wouldn't say so. Once upon a time, a PlayStation 2 was too powerful to export: https://www.pcmag.com/news/20-years-later-how-concerns-about...

ChatGPT 2 was once too powerful to release.

AI has been moving faster than culture and thinking around it. Once we've adapted to what these models can do we'll relax a little, and then a new stepwise improvement will start it all over again. It always goes this way.

marcus_holmes 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The ban on exporting cryptography in the 90's lasted for years, and got to be a major pain in the arse for the entire web industry in its early years. The US govt can be very stubborn about this stuff when it wants to be.

sublinear 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I think culture moves a lot faster than you believe.

The broader discussion about AI and model capabilities died a couple of years ago precisely because it's so underwhelming now. People did adapt. Startups stopped hiring just to get to MVP. Coding sweatshops had huge layoffs and stopped overhiring. The corporate world got better tools for collaborations and meetings. Accessibility tools are still bad, but improving. I would argue that the a11y topic is still very ripe to be the next big thing as it continues to converge with better UI/UX instead of being an afterthought.

The layperson and tech professional alike otherwise agreed that this is a vehicle for blame game, grift, disinformation, etc. This is where all the pushback is and the topic at hand. People aren't dumb. The only people worried about "AI" are the ones who bet too big on it.

manbart 3 hours ago | parent [-]

For a laugh, search for "p(doom)" (remember that?) and read some articles from 2023

gWPVhyxPHqvk 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> So isn’t the only logical conclusion that we have reached the max of model capabilities that the US allows to be made available to the public? Why invest in smarter models with this precedent?

95% odds this gets reversed by Monday morning is why

lovich 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Tuesday is the traditional reversal day.

marcus_holmes 3 hours ago | parent [-]

TACO Tuesday!

dabinat 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I predict in future the best frontier models will be gatekept solely to the wealthy.

fireant a minute ago | parent | next [-]

If the frontier models will take as much money to train as they do now, there is no way the wealthy are able to afford their training just for their own consumption. Financing of this whole thing rests on the models being available to companies and consumers who are willing to pay astronomical (compared to other software) sums for it.

swingboy 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I realize these models are locked up pretty tight and terabytes in size, but in a future like that, I don’t see them not being leaked via an insider. The weights have to be loaded into VRAM at some point.

chatmasta 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It’s a pretty safe bet that every frontier lab has multiple foreign intelligence agencies running assets inside of it.

sh34r 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Every hyperscaler hosting these models outside of FEDRAMP environments has been compromised by every regional power’s intelligence services. Fable was running all over the world until today.

AWS and friends are very good at providing excellent enterprise grade security, but it’s literal child’s play for nation state threat actors to exfil these models.

TEMPEST / EMSEC alone is a wide open door for unclassified datacenters when the Mossad’s out to get you.

aesthesia an hour ago | parent [-]

I'm skeptical that you're going to be able to reliably exfiltrate ~10TB of model weights using TEMPEST. Which is not to say weights are secure, just that this isn't the threat model I would be concerned about.

xpct 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That would depend on what gets leaked, as I'm not so sure that the weights by themselves would be enough to replicate the architecture. I imagine some part of the secret sauce will remain in the architecture, and the tensor dimensions may not be enough to decode it.

I'm sure if proprietary models continue to be a big thing, the methodology of their storage and loading on hardware will be obfuscated quite a bit.

anonzzzies 4 hours ago | parent [-]

But you can see this is not true (yet); competitors/Chinese labs are less than 6 months behind: either via leaks or by just stumbling on the same improvements with time/effort.

matheusmoreira 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Hope it happens someday. That'd probably be the best possible outcome for all of humanity.

wincy 5 hours ago | parent [-]

The gamers would really be complaining about why they can’t run Fable.torrent on their gaming PCs

reneberlin 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I don't think it's a good idea to give the crowds that kind of weapon. The first thing they'd do is "liberate" the model aka remove guardrails and safetly-protocols and brag on X / reddit with it and throw it into the public. That's only cool for a geek that doesn't think about the ethical impact of such a move. You'd basically become responsible for anything that is done with it, forever - have a good sleep. /s

int_19h 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

As opposed to what, the US military, or better yet Israel (because we all know they won't be excluded) using that model to drive weaponry that kills people?

Your hypothetical implies that there is a better alternative, but when those models are "restricted", in practice that means that the only people who have access to them are precisely those who can and will use them for the worst kind of shit. So yes, releasing them to the public is a better deal, ethically speaking, at least then the playing field will be slightly more equal.

bitexploder 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

What if I told you there are no safety guardrails. I used GLM 5.1 and had fable literally build a harness to avoid triggering guard rails. I built skills carefully and had Fable doing vuln research and exploit repro in a few hours. I called the project manhattan. The GLM models are down for almost anything so I named it Oppenheimer. It orchestrated the fable CLI agents via tmux. This whole Fable/Mythos thing is such a fucking joke. It is all PR and theatre and they know it.

tobyhinloopen 2 hours ago | parent [-]

I’ve been doing pentesting with LLMs for a while and only hit a few “nope I won’t do that” and one “this conversation is flagged for being against the TOS”. No idea what the guardrails are but they are trivially abused

marcus_holmes 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I can very easily see a licensing requirement coming soon. Running a higher-grade AI will require a govt-issued license, which involves a six-month application process, explanations of why you need to run it, where it's going to be stored and who will have access to it, pretty much the same as non-USA countries deal with firearms.

Smith42 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It's always been this way ever since the first industrial revolution.

bryzio 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Reasoning? More customers = more revenue, there's negative financial incentive behind restricting TAM. In the same way the iPhone isn't restricted to only the wealthy, that would significantly reduce total goods sold and thereby revenue. In addition that creates lower economies of scale, lower network effects etc.

neonstatic 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Reasoning: the poster blames all evil in the world on "capitalism", "corporations", and "the rich". The aforementioned are conspiring to gatekeep us all from the obvious good of poor, communist anarchy.

echelon 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Pay $1,000,000 per business function you want to build.

Businesses will gladly pay it.

Individuals will be locked out and unable to compete.

Oracle will be able to "prompt a new smartphone" for $500M or whatever and enter the market to compete with Apple and Google. You and I can't afford that and won't be able to compete.

Hyperscalers will hyper scale even faster.

They'll port Linux to Rust, remove the GPL, and have all kinds of new entirely proprietary OSes. They'll be attested, signed, and gradually we'll lose open hardware. Thin clients with binary blobs, highly encrypted, no control, only leased to us.

Within a generation nobody will be able to program or own devices that can program.

That's the scary scenario.

pmontra 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Very few businesses can pay 1M without blinking. None of my customers. But yeah, I got the gist of it. Incumbents like moats and happily pay money to build them. Note that the pricing of Anthropic's models usually increases for new models. Chinese models cost 10 or 100 times less. Are they less capable? Maybe, but they are alternatives unless credit card companies start banning payments to them.

echelon 4 hours ago | parent [-]

> Very few businesses can pay 1M without blinking. None of my customers.

Then they won't survive the termination boundary.

Too bad. Should have had more cash.

pmontra an hour ago | parent [-]

People have to eat food so they will keep doing business no matter what. If AI cost too much, they will do it without AI. Any resource that costs too much is replaced with cheaper alternatives. AI is no exception. At worst most of the IT business will die and we will make money doing something else.

LPisGood 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Then I guess I stop using computers that much outside of my job. It was fun while it lasted, but there’s other stuff.

You don’t _have_ to buy into the technocracy, there’s a whole outside going on.

matheusmoreira 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

That's genuinely terrifying.

greenavocado 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm praying that China survives this BS and remains the bastion of AI model openness and freedom of choice. Can't believe I just wrote that.

wahnfrieden 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

China’s biggest models are closed

verdverm 5 hours ago | parent [-]

The biggest open models are also Chinese

hutubutu 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[dead]

yogthos 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Not if Chinese companies have anything to say about it.

mensetmanusman 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Chinese AI self censor or are banned from being released by their emperor.

8note 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

how is that different from US AI that self censors and is banned from release by their emperors?

lbreakjai 15 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

US have guardrails, China have censorship.

US have fair tax breaks to support the national champions, China have unfair State-backed monopolies.

US have necessary intelligence gathering, China have state-surveillance.

girvo 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Well, it's different in that at least the Chinese companies release weights unlike the American ones!

ux266478 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Deepseek's base models aren't censored.

p_j_w 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I don’t need an AI to tell me about Tiananmen Square. I need it to do boring grunt work.

fireant 6 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This is a good point. If I were an investor, there is no way I'm investing into frontier labs after this announcement. Is this how the bubble pops?

marcus_holmes 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

For the sake of argument, assume everyone is working on good faith and at least believes and means the things they're saying.

The US government believes that Fable/Mythos is a weapon that needs to be export-controlled, and limited to only US customers. Presumably OpenAI/xAI/Google would face the same constraints, for the same reasons.

OS/foreign models are unaffected - OS because they cannot control who runs them, and foreign because they are not controlled by the US government. We could assume that China will implement the same policy controls, but they see the world differently so might not.

So US AI companies are then limited to the US market, effectively, after about six months (the lag between the current frontier models and the OS models). They have much less incentive to push the envelope to create better models, because the US govt might also ban those completely.

The investor froth around the race to AGI dies, so valuations shrink (the current IPOs may be affected), and presumably the bubble bursts. None of the AI companies can afford to continue building data centres, so that all dies immediately. US GDP drops by ~5% because of that alone.

In a year's time, the US is in a major recession because it gambled so hard on AI. Europe less so, only because it was such a distant follower in that race. China is more-or-less unaffected. The best models are now OS/foreign, and AI is moving forward more slowly, but still moving forward.

Any other scenarios?

quantumink 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

A Holmes indeed... your deductive powers are piercingly perceptive! (the event chain was a joy to follow, gave me ai2027 vibes, but slowdown like)

Of course, the world is not filled with rational actors, and the probability of the current administration allowing the market to tank like that seems next to null, so Occam's razor (or whatever) would point to another TACO inevitably incoming

I'd certainly bet on your scenario if it was reasonable to assume the US and China could get over the 'race to the top or die at the bottom' dynamic

so far ai2027 seems to be playing out to an almost uncanny accuracy, realpolitik obliterates the façade yet again

sixothree 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It is very hard to believe the US government is operating in good faith any more. Do I need to gesture more broadly at the open corruption?

marcus_holmes an hour ago | parent [-]

Agreed. Going by patterns in the Iran war, members of Trump's family/in-crowd will invest in AI while it suffers from this decision, and then 15 mins later Trump will reverse the decision.

The thing is, that blatant market manipulation is playing with fire here, as so much of the US economy is invested in the AI bubble.

31 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]
[deleted]
cmrdporcupine 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The logical conclusion is that someone "forgot" to pay the right bribe to somebody in the admin, or make the right contributions to the GOP.

Same as the new bridge between Windsor and Detroit can't open until some palms are greased.

Chaos is a ladder, gotta keep climbing

itopaloglu83 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Somebody saying "Such a great $965 billion company you've got there, it would be such a shame if ..." you got the rest.

nijave 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Almost assuredly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic%E2%80%93United_State...

not_a_bot_4sho 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Add a Trump son to the Anthropic board and all friction is gone

5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
enraged_camel 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>> if a model like Mythos, which at best is an incremental improvement over Opus

What an unbelievable claim. Especially since the vast majority of publicly available benchmarks disagree.

BobbyJo 5 hours ago | parent [-]

The model card for mythos shows it being an incremental improvement in all respects besides security.

hodgehog11 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

This is utterly daft to say if you actually used the thing for hard problems, something that benchmarks have been known to be unable to capture. It is night and day compared to Opus and every other model out there. It was nice while it lasted.

sixothree 2 hours ago | parent [-]

It's strange how uninformed people are when they are so willing to to make assertions. I used it too and it really felt like a generational shift and not an incremental one.

These threads about Anthropic always seem so astroturfed with some of the loudest and most uninformed people around.

tobyhinloopen 2 hours ago | parent [-]

I agree with this, It feels like a small upgrade like Opus 4.9 or something.

It’s still pretty good though

bonsai_spool 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Ah yes, the model card that shows an over 10% improvement in agentic coding among other things!

https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-fable-5-mythos-5

system2 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

We definitely reached the available capability plateau. You are 100% correct IMHO.

anonzzzies 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Wait a few weeks. They won't be able to generate enough without it; it will get reversed and things will just continue as normal.

5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
AbstractH24 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There may be a temporary plateau. And it could have fascinating macroeconomic impacts.

Efficiency will become the next thing to focus on. It was already emerging, but accelerating the focus on efficiency will lead to a ton of excess capacity and even some investments in data centers to go belly up. And ultimately the AI bubble bursting will look a lot like the dot com, with its surplus fiber.

Oh, and this will put gas on the fire that fighting AI and big tech is the next political rally cry. Along with “eat the rich” as they are seen as taking both jobs and money.

Curious to see where it’s all headed and how Trump’s call will impact it.

itopaloglu83 4 hours ago | parent [-]

You touched a great point, I wonder how the markets would react to this. No wonder the order was released just after the end of business on a Friday. Let me guess, something will happen right before market opening on Monday and some bets will pay great dividends.

AbstractH24 2 hours ago | parent [-]

If there’s one thing that’s certain it’s that Trump will do something just after markets close on Friday.

But I hadn’t considered this fell into that category. Except maybe as a direction from Iran. You make a good point, it may trigger immediate reactions in the market. Not just 3-6 month ones.

I wonder what the counterbalance will be by Monday morning.

teaearlgraycold 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Eh, not any different than the performative encryption restrictions from decades past.

anonzzzies 3 hours ago | parent [-]

But those were very easy to sidestep: proxy/vpn, download java with US encryption, and move on. That is very different with this.

varispeed 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I don't know, I've been using Mythos this week quite sceptically and I found it to be incredibly dumb. For instance gave it a dialogue between 3 people and it was constantly mixing up who said what to whom, which looked like early Gemini behaviour. But latest Opus does that too. It would also make nonsensical inference about given papers and only correct itself when pointed out what it said wrong. If that is what US government fears... maybe the fear is that someone follows the dumb things the model suggests.

zmmmmm 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

it feels like it's mostly just tuned to up it's level of capability on long horizon tasks - stop context rot and keep persisting at all costs until a goal is done.

The base intelligence does not feel much greater to me.

hodgehog11 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

This is a ridiculous thing to test on it. Other models are trained on that kind of thing, use those instead.

Fable was designed for _really_ hard software engineering problems. Possibly large, but especially hard. For those tasks, you feel the difference immediately.