Only a single order of magnitude of cost? So a $4b data center on Earth delivers the same value as a $40b data center in Space? So if you have greater than a 95% operating margin and capacity constraints (either due to nation environmental law, power limits, or other such blockers) then this is a no-brainer - a 95% operating margin becomes a 50% operating margin. The return on capital is much much lower so you have to be anticipating cheaper capital, even cheaper costs than this in practice, or something else.

Inference margins are some 70% right now? So it needs quite some work on both sides but this seems to make it seem more achievable than I previously thought.

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giraffe_lady 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It assumes $44/kg to launch into orbit. Idk where that came from if it's a musk claim or what but it's ludicrous against current costs. Currently still at thousands/kg and dropping but nowhere near $44 and I haven't heard anyone claim that's likely who isn't selling a rocket company.

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mikestorrent 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

That seems pretty cheap, like, can I launch my cat's ashes into space or something for $50?

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PowerfulWizard 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Musk is deliberately creating a business that needs high volume low cost launch services because in order to get low cost launch high volume is needed, and in order to get high volume a customer is needed. In the same way that Starlink launches were used to create the Falcon 9 economies of scale, the orbital AI will be used to create the Starship economies of scale. He also wants to bet the whole company on this which creates pressure to deliver and not just coast on what they've already accomplished. There are a bunch of related high risk bets but they ultimately connect back to bringing Mars within reach with frequent low cost launch capability.

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bluecalm 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The plan is to launch from Earth in the beginning stages and then switch to launching from the Moon which has no atmosphere so you don't need rockets and can use an electromagnetic gun instead. That requires satellite manufacturing on the Moon and I guess the minerals required will come from asteroid mining.

That's my understanding of what Elon said about how it's going to work.

	▲	davidkwast 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		So the majority of the hardware should stay on the moon where latency isn't so critical. There the cooling won't be the problem.

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stackghost 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

>So a $4b data center on Earth delivers the same value as a $40b data center in Space?

It may do so, initially, compared to a new-build DC.

But, critically, you can upgrade the racks in an already-built DC without demolishing the entire building. You can't do that in orbit, so the full lifecycle ROI is lower.

Orbital DCs are constrained by cooling and by bandwidth. Even a space-to-ground laser (which does not currently exist in a sufficiently-mature form) has a fraction of the bandwidth of a proper terrestrial fiber line. So you're paying at least 10x for essentially a disposable datacenter that can't move as much data in or out, and likely will not be as powerful as a terrestrial DC because of the cooling constraint, just to have it in space because reasons.

I don't see the business case, at all.

This is so transparently another hyperloop-esque pipe dream invented for the sole purpose of inflating SpaceX's valuation.