>maybe by chance.

Big sky theory says otherwise.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_sky_theory

The article also states that Iran shot down the fighter jet the US had to recover the weapons officer of. I recall news reports at the time insisting that this was actually an accident or friendly fire incident as it had been the previous time they lost an aircraft within the Iranian sphere of influence.

Given the US government's spiraling disregard for factuality, it's safe to assume any loss of equipment or personell in the area of operations is hostile, not accidental.