> Together with the jobs numbers, it would be weird for an independent Fed to not raise rates.

Not really. They may believe the inflation is driven by supply shocks, not excess demand. For example, the oil blockade. Raising already restrictive rates wont increase the supply of oil.

They don't even need to be right. If they simply believe this is what's driving inflation, they could decline to raise rates without that necessarily indicating a lack of independence.

Personally I expect the FED not to be independent and to let inflation run a little hot while lowering rates to attack the debt from 2 angles. But even still, its not true that high CPI + not lowering rates = non-independent fed

> They may believe the inflation is driven by supply shocks, not excess demand

Fair enough, I regret my edit. It would be unusualy for the Fed not to hold or raise rates.

Lowering rates, on the other hand, would be a clear WTF move.