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somesortofthing 2 hours ago

There will be a brief(or, depending on the underlying rules of reality ASI uncovers, not-so-brief) period where A and B do overlap - we have superintelligence but still have to run experiments, manufacture robots, test new drugs in vivo, etc. That period is in and of itself dangerous for the labs, because many entities can just stop them by denying necessary inputs. For the labs to conquer the world, they'll need cooperation - from the state, from robotics companies, from compute companies, from the mining and energy and agriculture sectors.

There will be a period of time where markets attempt to run in a business-as-usual way while the transactions that matter happen as power-sharing arrangements - spots on the "AI Governance Board" or the "uploaded to von neumann probe" club. Markets will still matter in that the labs will need the state to overturn market obstacles to control of the world.

The existence of the A-B overlap also suggests to me that the US-China gap is less dire for China than it appears - they may be able to use their superior industrial, robotics, and scientific base to win the second leg of the race despite losing the first.