Better not mention your theory to all the other Tier 1 data centers. Or maybe you're saying that it's only AI that's short-lived.

T1 companies have longer depreciation cycles, they have customers that will use the dated hw for non-frontier work. They can make the capex more justifiable and have flexibility to be more creative about its use. A frontier lab really needs the best hw available at full capacity.

Respectfully, I tend to think of tier 1 data centers as someone I'm paying for colocation services and the value they provide is power infrastructure and redundancy, network infrastructure and redundancy, cooling, and physical security.

The shortage I referred to is in GPUs, that's what really being rented here.

Even if GPUs lasted forever, they're are a depreciating asset because they become obsolete with improvements over generations.

GPUs do not last forever, either. I've read here, and heard from others, that they aren't even living up to their 5 year depreciation schedules under production load, closer to 2-3 years.

I use AI all the time. I hope AI isn't short lived. It might be if they can't figure this shit out, or if IPOs like spacex poison public opinion against them first.