I think he doesn't need to understand the technology to point out the books are cooked. a business can sink in either way: the technology flops or the finances flop. he's arguing the /finances/ would flop. he doesn't argue that the /technology/ would flop, only that they can't come up with the money to pay their debters.

There is a piece of this I agree with. That you do not need to be a deep technical expert to notice that a company is burning cash by overcommitting to capex, or relying on heroic revenue projections that may or may not come to pass.

But that is not the full argument he is making. If the claim is that the labs will not be able to pay their creditors because inference is structurally incapable of becoming profitable, then he absolutely needs to be right about the technical economics of inference.

One part of that is the balance-sheet argument (which already shows insanely good margins). But it also depends on how inference-time compute actually works: routing, batching, kv cache reuse, model segmentation, different latency tiers, etc. Much of those details he's just been straight up wrong about in his writing, so as a result I have to call into question the rest of his reasoning as well (in part to avoid Gell-Mann amnesia).