> There's plenty of noise about banks holding large amounts of bad private credit debt.

This is still only big enough to cause funny banking collapses not actual 2008 scale financial disasters. Banks hold a lot of bad debt, but it's isolated from consumer accounts. Might not want to hold equity in SoftBank though.

> There's so much uncertainty and the combination of war, high oil prices, and uncertainty about tarriffs that the market struggles to value anything as international fear drives investment into the US and high prices confusing whether growth is growth or just inflation.

The big concern lies in what the Trump admin will do. Things could end up merely a bad recession, like the Dotcom and Telecom bubble.

Or they can attempt to keep the bubble going once it collapses, crashing interest rates, and doom the US economy.

On other hand private corporate credit freezing might take down lot of business that need credit lines to operate regularly. Even the not so bad zombie companies. Tightening up and not being able to revolve credit anymore could lead to bankruptcies.

>This is still only big enough to cause funny banking collapses not actual 2008 scale financial disasters. Banks hold a lot of bad debt, but it's isolated from consumer accounts. Might not want to hold equity in SoftBank though.

Banks are lending to these private funds that are packaging questionable loans into securities (as opposed to banks giving loans or companies issuing bonds). This is the post-2008 place for people to get highly leveraged loans and they probably need to be better regulated.

But yes it doesn't seem like private credit alone will cause problems, the concern I'm trying to outline is a few of these things happening at the same time causing a kind of collapse.

TACO uncertainty is strangely propping up asset values as there's always a credible thought that whatever is happening is pretend or going to be reversed soon. And the expectation that the fed isn't independent any more and will make decisions to prolong the bubble resulting in a bigger crash ambiguously far into the future. Few want to start shorting because they have no concept of how long the market can stay irrational or if 20% inflation might be around the corner instead of a popped bubble.