I'm collecting many kinds of predictions Ed Zitron made so that you can see for yourself whether he has a good track record.

-------

> While complex, generative AI is a technology that probabilistically generates answers, and has no "intelligence." It is inherently limited by its architecture, and in turn can only get "better" in a linear fashion. I see no signs that the transformer-based architecture can do significantly more than it currently does.

He wrote this in 2024 before reasoning models came out. Remember how ChatGPT was in 2024? Do you think this person is someone who gets predictions right?

> Furthermore, I hypothesize a race to the bottom in generative AI will significantly hamper OpenAI's ability to expand revenue, compounded by the fact that we're approaching the limits of transformer-based architecture.

He wrote this in 2024 and since then Anthropic's revenue increased by 160x to $40 B dollars a year and OpenAI's increased by 6x. Do you think this person gets predictions right still?

> I believe we're reaching the upper limits about what generative AI can do and how accurate its outputs can be,

He wrote this in 2024, do you really think we have reached upper limits? Huh?? What I'm using today is significantly more accurate and 2 tiers above what we had.

> And if there are true industry-changing possibilities waiting for us on the other side, I am yet to hear them outside of the fan fiction of Silicon Valley hucksters.

He says this about AI when we have with all honesty have had industry changing possibilities like agentic coding.

> There are indications that consumers have also lost interest. As pointed out by Alex Kantrowitz’ Big Technology newsletter, traffic to ChatGPT on both mobile and web has started to stagnate, if not decline. In January 2024, ChatGPT had 1.6 billion visits — 11% below the all-time peak of 1.8 billion. This makes it only modestly more popular than Bing, which had 1.3 billion unique visits during that period. On the mobile front, ChatGPT has an estimated 6.3 million US users — or 1.7 times less than the total of new Snapchat users added during Q4 2023.

He agrees with the claim that the consumer interest has declined. Since he said this, there was a 9x growth in active users.

-----

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wStScmT748&t=1s

"AI Bubble Already Bursting?" (8 months back)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8ByoAt5gCA&t=1s

"A.I bubble is bursting with Ed Zitron" (1 year back)

He's been constantly crying bubble for years now.

-----

> AI video won’t get truly fixed just by waiting a year.

This is what he had said in 2024, and you just need to compare video from then and now to check whether the predictions came true. Why would anyone trust what this guy has to say?

How’s that meme go? "We are 2/3 years into being 6 months away from AI taking all white collar jobs".

The criticism goes both ways. The word "fixed", in Ed terms, can be translated to "become a viable business that justifies the spend".

In regards to AI video, I think the fact that Sora is no long around is an indicator. And there is seemingly no real appetite for AI video outside of memes, jokes, and misinformation, probably indicates that the prediction around AI video has come true.