I think it is easy to make some ragebait doomer articles with eye catching headlines. There are a lot of people who are ready to eat up AI catastrophism because something about apocalyptic predictions and catastrophism seems to attract certain kind of doomer-pilled people.

Here are my concrete predictions

1. Token costs will come down and performance will go up

2. Everyone will spend even more on LLMs not less - the article points at small blips but if anyone thinks it will go down from now, you are mistaken

3. AI Companies will be profitable

If anyone wants to counter bet on me, please go ahead.

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Quarrel 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> 3. AI Companies will be profitable

but many of the current crop will never return money to investors.

I largely agree with you, but the huge investments currently being made will be very hard to get a return on. Token costs will come down, performance will go up, and you want to be in the business of selling the picks & shovels, not doing the mining.

Which is of course why nvidia, google & TSMC are in pretty good positions, but even their valuations have some bubble in them.

	▲	simianwords 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Respectfully, do you want a bet that AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic can't become profitable? I mean this is a sort of conspiracy theory and I genuinely don't know why people think AI is particularly hard to get money back from? > I largely agree with you, but the huge investments currently being made will be very hard to get a return on. Why do you find it huge? Anthropic went from $1B to $44B revenue in a few months and this is unprecedented. 1. The margins on inference are huge 2. There is genuine moat because AI models have personalities strengths and weaknesses that's so they are definitely not fungible I think a lot of handwaving goes on but it comes in the form of some latent concern that AI might just be profitable. But the reality is that it will be. None of the "selling picks and shovels" analogies will stick.

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somewhereoutth 35 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

1. Both costs (going down) and performance (going up) likely are, or will shortly, approach asymptotic limits.

2. CFOs are seeing the token spend on the bottom line, and are not happy. CFOs don't care about 'the next big thing', they just count beans, and they are coming up short. CFOs tend to be the grown-ups in the C-suite, they will shut things down if they need to.

3. See 1. and 2.

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an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

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