This is kind of a winding, long-winded way of saying that AI models are going to be commoditized, mostlikely by the Chinese. This has been my position ever since DeepSeek came out. It is a national security interest for China for an American company not to "own" AI. And they will release models to make that not happen.

We aren't yet at the point where running local models can compete with DC type infrastructure but it's not that far away either. 12B models are easy to run on consumer hardware. 31B models aren't that hard either but the tokens/sec are a bit slow. Where will we be in 3 years? 5? I think we'll be running 100B+ models on <$5000 PCs. And at that point is there a law of diminishing returns with even bigger models? We will see.

The issue is that several companies, most notably OpenAI, are predicated on:

1. There will be an AI moat; and

2. That company will "win" or "own" AI.

That's the basis of the OpenAI valuation. If that doesn't happen, it's going to be ahuge problem to recover sufficient revenue to recoup the investment. And I don't think it will happen.

In 3-5 years the NVidia hardware you buy will be several times cheaper and faster than what we have now. That will massively depreciate existing investments because it will ultimately come down to performance-per-Watt but if a theoretical G100 can do 3-4x of the inference of an H100 for the same power, the older hardware just won't be able to compete.

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2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

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tcp_handshaker 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

>> In 3-5 years the NVidia hardware you buy will be several times cheaper and faster than what we have now. That will massively depreciate existing investments because it will ultimately come down to performance-per-Watt but if a theoretical G100 can do 3-4x of the inference of an H100 for the same power, the older hardware just won't be able to compete.

And this is the core of why this will all end in tears. You have race conditions and thread inversion issues, between four threads in the virtual cpu of this bubble. And you are going to experience some nasty deadlocks.

T1 is -> Depreciation and amortization

T2 is -> NVDA, AMD and others booking revenues at the time they do

T3 is -> Constraint theory at it applies to time until physical deployment and data centers energy constraints

T4 is -> US Treasury bonds rates and cost of credit

	▲	trumpdong 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Even though programmers would never intentionally design a 4-way race condition in a computer system, it's completely ordinary in business. Businesses don't always work out.