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dmix 2 hours ago

The issue wasn't a lack of planning by the military it was a lack of commitment on the goals by the administration. If it was just a desert storm style campaign (hit them very hard over a month then leave without finishing off Saddam) then they should have left already when Iran offered to open the strait, and it could have been sold as a success.

If they want Iran to truely bend the knee over nukes then they have to commit harder militarily than they are now, which neither the president nor the public seems to have an appetite for and Iran knows that. So now it's mostly deadlocked on both the US demanding Iran lose face by giving up Uranium immediately, while Israel wants to keep up an air campaign to further neuter Irans combat capabilities to free up their own strategic goals against Hezbollah and Hamas. But neither options are properly aligned, especially with fanatics in IRGC taking over.

It's either a short air campaign or a war, but they can't seem to decide so we are left with an blockade.

defrost 26 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> If they want Iran to truely bend the knee over nukes

then they never should have torn up the agreement that saw multiple third party inspectors having feet on the ground and leaving in place tamper resistant / tamper revealing air filters and spectrometer instrumentation.

Instead a path has been taken that has upped the HEU game and hardened the core guard and fanatics.

JumpCrisscross 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> when Iran offered to open the strait

When did Iran offer this? (One problem with a decapitation strike is you no longer have a single party to negotiate with.)

> If they want Iran to truely bend the knee over nukes then they have to commit harder militarily than they are now

It's genuinely unclear if America has the military power to project into Iran to the degree a ground invasion would require. (Like, short of carpet bombing the country's infrastructure and industry out of existence.)

Missiles, drones and space-based surveillance have tilted the balance in favour of defenders, at least on the ground. American firepower can constrain Iran to within its airspace and maritime borders. But even if it made sense to, it's questionable whether we can influence much within them.

nixon_why69 an hour ago | parent [-]

Iran opened the strait as a gesture after the Lebanon ceasefire was announced. Trump then immediately announced "blockade stays" in some truth social rant, so they reclosed it within a day.