I wonder what the impact of the rising base rate of employees with college degrees is. In 1992, a fresh college graduate had better educational attainment than 42% of the labor force. In 2016 (latest date I found numbers for), that was down to 32%. https://www.bls.gov/spotlight/2017/educational-attainment-of...

That shifting distribution would somewhat reduce the advantage of a college degree against the average member of the labor force.

Compare under 27s with a degree vs without and you see the problem is youth unemployment. If you are 25 you’re better off with a degree than without though.

In the U.K. youth unemployment is about 2005-6 levels. It was far higher by 2010.