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davedx an hour ago

Start gradually converting your equity to bonds is the standard advice on that timeframe. If you're dreading equity drawdowns, that's what fixed income is for.

Gareth321 12 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Bonds are no longer recommended. Current research indicates 100% equities to be the best composition leading up to, and past, retirement.

To point, the economic uncertainties around geopolitics, AI, and war, plus irresponsible debt spending by governments and the prospect of QE (and higher inflation), is pushing long term rates steadily higher. There’s a reasonable chance that 30y treasuries are nearing 6% by the end of next year. Remember that rates and bond prices are inversely related. Anyone who holds bonds in this market will likely lose money. Holding to maturity won’t help much either because if inflation continues to rise, as is a major concern, most or all of that 5% yield gets eaten.

solenoid0937 an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

This is absolutely terrible advice and is out of touch with modern financial understanding. Bonds feel psychologically safer, but lead to failure more often than total market equity portfolios, even when you account for market crashes.

https://youtu.be/p25PPBgMiEk

GoatOfAplomb 22 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

I agree with everything in the video you linked (which is not surprising, given it's Ben Felix). That includes the parts about equities being less risky than bonds in very important ways, but also the parts about behavioral loss tolerance and risk capacity, and how they can indicate higher bond allocation.

So I disagree that "If you're dreading equity drawdowns, that's what fixed income is for" is absolutely terrible advice.

senordevnyc 37 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

I always thought the psychological safety was exactly part of the point, since 100% equity portfolios do better in theory than practice, because people are more likely to panic sell.