And SpaceX will spend $800M per month on Nvidia hardware purchase contacts, and Nvidia will spend $700M per month on Google services.

I'm picturing a teenager blowing a bubble gum bubble bigger and bigger. I assume it can go on forever!

▲

credit_guy 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The doubt you are expressing was very justified until this week. But on June 1st, Microsoft changed the pricing for business and enterprise Copilot, and people started paying real money for using AI. Until that day, Github Copilot was charging users 4 cents per request (if they exceeded their subscription's monthly limit). Now, they charge at the API rate. I monitor my usage, and it's easily 10 times more expensive than the 4 cents per request before, maybe 20 or even more. And guess what? Businesses are shocked about the changes, and thinking hard what to do, but most of them will just pay 10 or 20 times or more for AI than they used to pay until now.

We will hear projections soon, in a few months, but my guess is that the big 3 (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google) will get of the order of $10 billion per month in AI inference revenues. And it will only go up from there.

▲

MichaelNolan 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> but most of them will just pay 10 or 20 times or more for AI than they used to pay until now.

At my work, after the GitHub price hike, we all got the option of 1. Keep using Github, but with the same total spend as before. i.e, use 1/20th as much since the dollar cap isn't changing. Or option 2, use as much self hosted DeepSeek v4 Pro, Qwen 3.6, Gemma4 as you want since it's almost free. (to be fair, we already had the GPUs)

If the Chinese keep releasing open weight models that are "close enough" to the big 3, I expect many orgs to make the same choice. I think we will see VPs and higher start saying "you better have a good reason for using Opus 4.8 or GPT 5.5 Pro, do you have metrics showing ${cheaper_model} isn't good enough?"

▲

layoric 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

What makes you think “most of them will just pay 10 or 20 times more for AI”?

They can’t measure ROI, and it will start costing more than their staff. You might be right, but I can’t think why any competent C suit would agree to this..

	▲	BowBun 4 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Look at cloud spend - how many of your employers have measured the ROI of using cloud vs. self-hosting? At a certain point these things just become the cost of doing business I suppose.

▲

nish__ 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

What is Nvidia spending so much on Google services for?

▲

vdfs 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

A bubble will never pop as long as stay in it's bubble form

▲

manmal 14 hours ago | parent [-]

Usually there’s some environmental disturbance eventually, that makes it burst.

	▲	Waterluvian 12 hours ago \| parent [-]
		So… data centres in space it is.