> In your analysis you have shown that exactly one of these reasons is anecdotal.

This was actually the convincing one for me though. “Did AI increase the rsync bug rate? Dunno, can’t tell yet” seems like a fine conclusion to me. Plenty of people in this thread and previous ones on the topic seem convinced one way or another, so it’s nice to see actual numbers.

The numbers are statistically insignificant though. So you cannot use them to generalize over a wider population.

I think in this era of scientific literacy people tend to overcorrect in the absence of evidence. Anecdotal evidence still evidence though, and people are right to react to them.

If we remove our frequentis hats and put on our baysian hat (which is a wise thing to do when n is very low) we can take into consideration evidence from multiple direction at the same time as we upgrade our belief. A baysian might start with the prior that claude assisted commits have the same distribution as non-assisted commits. I would start with a Poisson distribution as my prior, and then they would factor inn all the evidence of AI slop they have seen in their lives and update their posteriors accordingly. Claude caude has been wrong about so many things in the past, which should contribute to a smaller lambda then the control group.