Remix.run Logo
LinguaBrowse 3 hours ago

I’ve moved my S&P 500 investments to the Equal Weight index to reduce my exposure to AI. Quite aside from SpaceX, I think the large-cap tech companies are making some uncomfortably large bets on AI and any major upset could cause a domino effect.

But as so many ETFs have a significant stake in large-cap US tech stocks (the top 10 holdings of the iShares MSCI World ETF is entirely comprised US Big Tech, making up 20% of the value of the ETF), I found S&P 500 Equal Weight to be pretty attractive.

As for SpaceX itself? I feel the numbers involved all sound a bit unbelievable to me. I fear that there will be a rug-pull sometime post-IPO, and retail investors (and taxpayers, if the US Government ends up taking a stake, as they have recently indicated they might do for OpenAI) will inevitably be left holding the bag.

frozenseven 2 hours ago | parent [-]

The greatest tech revolution by far and people on this site are trying to movie their money away from it. I hope y'all will do an honest retrospective in a year or so.

Wololooo an hour ago | parent | next [-]

People are doing so because the math is not mathing.

Assuming that all the claims are true, this would lead to a collapse under its own weight, because at that point, supposedly, most people won't be needed in the jobs they currently occupy.

Assuming the claims aren't true, there will be a reckoning where all the glitter thrown will hit the ground and people that invested would like to have their marbles back at whatever the cost.

I'd be betting on the latter rather than the former. BECAUSE all those companies are RUSHING for an IPO because none of them want to be left with the bag.

Just for the sake of comparison and to put things in perspective, just for the spaceX situation, running a datacenter is no easy task and require significant maintenance and supporting infrastructure, now you're going to tell me that you can achieve the same and even more in space where virtually everything is more complicated to achieve? And you're telling me that your entire business, or at least a big majority of it, will be this entirely unproven infrastructure? Seems like a bit of a stretch to me...

Now this being said, somehow some things may lie in the middle, but people seem to be a bit either too fond of the claims or too aggressive towards some part of the tech stack.

lelanthran 9 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> The greatest tech revolution by far and people on this site are trying to movie their money away from it. I hope y'all will do an honest retrospective in a year or so.

I this sentiment often, and think it is short-sighted:

1. The tech fails at the goal - profitability is what we see for any tech that augments humans, which isn't anywhere close to satisfying the trillions in debt, busting the market and bleeding trillions from the economy.

OR

2. The tech succeeds at the goal - humans are mostly now needed anymore other than for menial low-paid work. Economy slows, then almost completely stops.

What is the outcome you see that keeps you optimistic? How do you intend to avoid the soup kitchen if this all works out? Because, you see, if this all works out you will have nothing of value to contribute too.

asdfaoeu an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

AI can still have a massive impact while these three companies go nowhere.

Same as the dotcom and same as the railroads.

JumpCrisscross an hour ago | parent [-]

> AI can still have a massive impact while these three companies go nowhere

These three companies can do great while their valuations go nowhere.

orwin 36 minutes ago | parent [-]

Which is unlikely considering their obligations. I'm a bit more optimistic about SpaceX (and anthropic to a lower degree), but if free models keep improving at the same rate as frontier models, their won't be any profit from AI.

weird-eye-issue 15 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That doesn't necessarily make it the best investment at this point in time. Especially on a short time horizon such as "a year or so" AI stocks could easily correct 50% or so. And if you think that sounds impossible then you probably don't have much experience with the stock market.

marcosscriven 30 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If you’re here next year for the “honest retrospective”, it’s a deal.

KellyCriterion 12 minutes ago | parent [-]

I'll taket this bet!

Saline9515 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Have you heard of the dot com bubble?

frozenseven an hour ago | parent [-]

Yes, I've heard of it. And I say that there's no bubble and the AI market is greatly undervalued.

bmelton 30 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

I agree with you that the AI market is greatly undervalued, but I also agree with the field that these companies are overvalued

speed_spread 30 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

The Internet brought obvious benefits to everyone. New ways to communicate, associate and do business. It was a tool of collective empowerment. It promised a more equal, dynamic society. The promises of AI are much less constructive. I can see the power being immediately funneled to the top of the pyramid while everyone else sucks it up. It's not a future I want invest in or take part of.

alkonaut an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The trouble this time is if this goes bust I see a huge crash. And if it's wildly successful it seems worse.

Hamuko 34 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Call me when the greatest tech revolution stops burning through billions and billions of dollars.

thefounder an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Yeah like Cisco in 2000