Remix.run Logo
majormajor 3 hours ago

> If a significant percentage of the market is excluded from the index because they don't meet index inclusion criteria, then then index stops being a useful benchmark.

So what's the reason for fast entry specifically? If it's a significant portion of the market and will remain so, it doesn't need an accelerated entry. A benchmark should be conservative about new entrants so that it doesn't turn from a market benchmark to a trend/fad benchmark.

If time validates the valuations the entry will come in time, just like for previous entries.

tristanj 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Because the index needs accuracy. If a company is 1-2% of the total US market cap and not included in the index, then the index is wrong right now. The longer this company is not in the index, the longer this error compounds.

In the coming few months, multiple giga-cap companies (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) are all planning to IPO. These companies will likely never meet S&P profitability inclusion criteria for the next 5 years. These are not bad companies, but because the S&P inclusion criteria were written for old GAAP profitable companies, and not high-growth companies that invest their cashflow into company growth over profits. Excluding some of the most civilization changing companies from the benchmark means the benchmark is doing a terrible job.

tankenmate 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

"Because the index needs accuracy.", and I would argue that include price accuracy not just inclusion accuracy. The S&P is a benchmark that is designed to reflect a subset of the market, and giving only some companies early access to the benchmark changes the benchmark. So if you want a benchmark that's designed to include all the big stocks regardless of age, profitability, etc then go make a new benchmark. The only thing you need to do is convince others to use your benchmark.

tristanj 2 hours ago | parent [-]

"go make a new benchmark" completely ignores how this works in practice. Benchmarks are only useful because everyone uses the same one, you can't swap it out. The S&P 500 benchmark is used as a comparison for trillions of dollars of mutual funds, index funds, and institutional mandates. The further the S&P 500 strays from reflecting the actual market, the more useless it becomes.

Also the S&P criteria have been revised multiple times, it's not some sacred unchangeable document.

ywvcbk an hour ago | parent [-]

You want to turn S&P 500 to a total market index. Why? That was never its purpose.

tristanj 18 minutes ago | parent [-]

No? Where did I say that?

The purpose of the S&P 500 is to be the "best single gauge of U.S. large-cap equities". That's direct from their website. I never dispute this.

I dispute the fact they claim to be the best benchmark of large-cap U.S. equities, yet have rules that (currently) exclude large-cap equities like SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic.

ywvcbk an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Because the index needs accuracy

So you are saying that S&P 500 should be merged with Russell 2000 or rather just become a fully market index to be more "accurate". You do know that's something that exists already, having different indexes makes perfect sense and consumers can pick the ones they want based on their risk profile and preferences.

> most civilization changing companies from the benchmark

It took Google 2 years to get into S&P 500. For Microslop it was 8 years (!). So what's new?

tristanj 8 minutes ago | parent [-]

I am saying none of those things. S&P claims their S&P500 index is the "best single gauge of U.S. large-cap equities". That's taken directly from their website.

I dispute this claim, because the (current) rules for S&P500 inclusion exclude companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. All of these companies are planning to IPO this year, and even if these companies maintain their present valuation for a year, none are eligible for S&P 500. Due to profitability requirements.

Yet these are all U.S. large-cap companies, and by S&P's description of the index, should be included. Not including these companies makes the index inaccurate.

> [Google and Microsoft took years go get into the index], so what's new?

Because SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are $1T+ companies. Google and Microsoft were much smaller relative to the size of the index when they joined.

mandevil 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There are indexes which explicitly try to capture the entire market- the Russell 3000 is most prominent, but the Wiltshire 5000 is another one, and Vanguard's Total Market Funds and ETF follow the CRSP US Total Market Index. I believe all of them plan to include SpaceX/OpenAI etc. within a few weeks of its listing, which is what I'd expect from their goal of tracking the total market. Other indexes follow just a few stocks- most famously, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (built during an era of when it had to be calculated by hand every night) looks at just 30 stocks in a weird way(1).

The S&P 500 isn't either of those. It has a list of criteria for inclusion, one of which is profitability. They are sticking with that criteria. If you don't like it, sell your VOO and buy VTI instead.

1: It is essentially impossible to build an index that tracks the DJIA because, since it was done on pencil and paper, it isn't actually market-cap weighted, but is share price weighted, with a correction factor for each stock to account for splits, one stock replacing another, etc. Because of that nature, the weights of the DJIA change minute by minute, so someone attempting to track it would be subject to enormous error.

qnpnpmqppnp an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> If a company is 1-2% of the total US market cap and not included in the index, then the index is wrong right now.

To be clear, S&P 500 relies on float, not total US Market Cap, and Space X will have a tiny float.

Even if it was included, SpaceX would not account for 1-2% of the S&P 500 (more like 0.1%), so even if we reason on the basis of a benchmark, it's not a meaningful difference.

tristanj an hour ago | parent [-]

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48407542

ozozozd 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

But it is not 1-2% of the total US market cap, is it?

It aspires to be that way. The market decides, and it hasn’t decided yet.

Am I missing something?

2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
phlakaton 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Because the index needs accuracy.

No, it doesn't. At least, not the way you are probably defining it.

This sounds to me like you may be trying to use the index for something it's not really meant to be used for.

tristanj 2 hours ago | parent [-]

What is the S&P 500 meant for then? It was created in 1957 as a benchmark of US equity performance. That's S&P Global's own stated purpose. If it's systematically excluding companies that represent significant chunks of total US market cap, the index isn't doing its job.

thesmtsolver2 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> If a company is 1-2% of the total US market cap

Over what time horizon should that number be computed? Every day? Every second? Every month/quarter?

It is not as simple as it seems.

jddj 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Maybe you know this already, but this reads like exactly the kind of reasoning that people looking back at irrational market euphorias point to as a sign things were about to go awry.

tristanj an hour ago | parent [-]

The purpose of a benchmark is to reflect the market. If the US economy is pumping out high-growth but overpriced & unprofitable companies via IPOs, at unreasonable valuations, the benchmark should reflect that.

It's not S&P's fault this is happening.

jddj an hour ago | parent [-]

On the contrary. There are many benchmarks, some small subset of which are intended to reflect the whole market.

There are indices for every little thematic and niche corner or strategy or idea, there are broad-as-possible indices, and there are indices with requirements like listed age and profitability.

tristanj 25 minutes ago | parent [-]

I'm not debating any of that. This discussion is about the S&P500 as a benchmark, which has an expressly stated purpose of tracking large-cap US equities.

This discussion is about if S&P500 actually achieves this benchmark, when it has (antiquated) rules that exclude large-cap US companies of the likes of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI.